FAIR AND BIASED

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

George Porter is an active member of the Stephens County Republican Party. He writes a weekly column in The Duncan Banner. George's articles are well thought out and well written. He has granted permission for this weeks article to be posted on the blog- enjoy!

Understanding Human Behavior

Al Gore and the media cascade

by George Porter

Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 for his work with Amos Tversky in understanding human behavior and common human error and biases. Kahneman, an Israeli-American psychologist, was born in 1934 in Tel Aviv, Israel, received a B.A. from Hebrew University in 1954 and a Ph.D. from UC Berkeley in 1961. He won the Nobel for his pioneering work on behavioral finance and hedonic psychology. His ideas and terminology have become main-stream today. An example is the op/ed column by Holman Jenkins that appeared in the Dec. 5 Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Al Gore and his motivation. Jenkins refers to Kahneman and defines the terms "availability bias" -- the human propensity to judge the validity of a proposition by how readily it comes to mind. "Availability cascade" is used for the way a proposition can become irresistible simply by frequent media repetition. "Informational cascade" is used for the tendency to replace one's judgment with the crowd's beliefs; and "reputational cascade" for the rational incentive to do so. Enter these terms in your search engine to see the range of current issues being discussed using these terms. Fortune magazine on Nov. 13 reported in an exclusive interview that Al Gore last month joined the venture capital firm of Kleiner, Perkins, to assist in promoting alternative energy investments. Gore three years ago started in London the $1 billion investment firm Generation Investment with David Blood, the former head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Fortune quotes Gore that to halt global warming "What we are going to have to put in place is a combination of the Manhattan Project, the Apollo project, and the Marshall Plan, and scale it globally…It'd be promising too much to say we can do it on our own, but we intend to do our part… We want to give a big shout-out, though that's not the corporate term, to every inventor and entrepreneur and idea generator in the micro, macro, systems-integration level to create with this alliance a clearinghouse for the identification and selection of the most promising ideas on the planet for quickly solving this climate crisis...We all believe that markets must play a central role." This is no small deal. Venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins has in the past backed start-ups like Google, Netscape, Sun Microsystems and Amazon, among others. Gore has effectively created an "availability cascade" on his thesis of a man-made global warming crisis. He estimates that he personally has shown his slide show on global warming over 1,000 times, and the documentary version "An Inconvenient Truth" won the Oscar. A Kleiner, Perkins spokesman recently told a Senate hearing "One does not need to believe in climate change to support climate change legislation….Many executives would prefer to deal with known legislation even if unwarranted." He was referring to the carbon tax proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives that would have more than doubled the home heating costs for the majority of American homes. (It didn't pass.) Global energy currently is a $6 trillion business. Jenkins comments that if Congress were to mandate a one-half replacement of annual U.S. gasoline consumption by a carbon-neutral alternative, it would be a $400 billion annual business opportunity for the green energy lobby. Yet it would have a minimal effect on global carbon emissions. The U.N. Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, ends today. The 180 nations in attendance are trying to forge an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012. President Bush has stated the U.S. will not sign unless it applies to all major countries including China and India. China recently said it will not sign any multinational U.N. protocol on global warming. I agree with the many scientists who believe man-made global warming is a myth. World temperatures were both much colder and warmer than they are in today's industrialized world with its seven billion people. The WSJ article concludes with the statement that current global warming politics will certainly end with a whimper once a few consecutive years of cooling are recorded as they have been in the past. Quoting Michigan's representative John Dingell "the world…is great at having consensuses that are in great error."

George Porter is a retired insurance company executive. He may be contacted at geormrty@wmconnect.com

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Why FAIR & BIASED?

FAIR- because that's my name and BIASED because the truth is we are all biased- either for something or against it. What's important is that our bias(opinions) are based on right- on absolute truth and not on changing values. What's right cannot change based on a change in circumstances. That is the basis for situational ethics.

Situation Ethics is a theory that is concerned with the outcome or consequences of an action; the end, as opposed to an action being intrinsically wrong. In the case of situation ethics, the end can justify the means. There are no absolutes. Your actions are guided only by your conscience.

A person's view of right can be subjective. But there is a way mankind can definitely know what's right and that is revealed in God's Word- the Bible. As His creatures, we should be biased toward things our Creator is for and biased against those things He is against. May God grant us the grace and understanding to know the difference.

PARTY AFFILIATION IS IMPORTANT! by Steve Fair- written in 2009

How important is political party affiliation? Some people mistakenly believe only politicians need political affiliation, which they use for support to get elected. They contend the electorate or voters, do not need to be aligned with any Party. These same people often state they “support the man, not the Party.” But whether they recognize it or not, they are supporting a party when they “support the man.”
Most of the Founding Fathers had a negative view of political parties. In his farewell address to the nation, George Washington warned about political parties saying, “However [political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.” In spite of Washington's warning, political parties were formed anyway.
From 1796 to 1828 the first political parties were formed. Starting with the Federalists and Anti-Federalists, two opposing factions arose. Each was concerned with how the new government was to be organized. The Federalists believed in a strong central government. Their philosophy and beliefs would closely mirror the Democrat Party today. The Anti-Federalists strongly supported the rights of the states. They would more closely align with Republicans today.
Since the mid 1800s, the Ds and Rs have been the two major political parties in our country. Political parties flourished in our government mainly for legislative organization and expediencies sake. Why is Party affiliation important for the average voter? Party affiliation is important for three very simples reasons.
First, party affiliation is the first vote a citizen casts. When a citizen registers as a Democrat, then they are aligning philosophically with the values, beliefs, tenets, and positions of the Democrats on the issues. Party affiliation “defines” you are and what you stand for. It should be taken as seriously as a vote for a specific candidate. Research what each Party stands for, their positions on issues, and then align with the Party that is closest to your values. Copies of both major Party platforms are available on-line or at the local library.
Second, legislatures organize themselves and conduct business using party affiliation. The legislative branch of government is the most powerful arm of the three branches of government. Legislative bodies hold closed meeting of party members, called a caucus to decide on questions of policy or leadership. The Republicans hold a caucus meeting and the Democrats hold a caucus meeting-both at the state and federal level. Unfortunately, conservative, moderate and liberal philosophies do not hold caucus meetings or control the legislative agendas- parties do. When someone says they vote for “the man,” not the party, they fail to understand the power and function of a caucus system in a legislative body. The Party in the majority controls appointments, Chairmanships, the agenda and countless other things through the caucus.
Third, party affiliation should be a matter of conviction, not convenience. Often, people align with a party so they can vote in primary elections or based on family tradition or geographies. Even candidates will align, file and run affiliated with a Party they have little philosophical agreement with. That decision is made out of convenience, not conviction. While no political party is perfect or has all the answers, there is a distinct difference between the two major parties and honest citizens should align with the Party that reflects their convictions.
The Democrat Party is more liberal than the Republican Party. Liberals believe in more government control of business, the environment and speech, using large bureaucratic programs to address real or perceived social ills and constant reinterpretation of the Constitution. Liberals are more inclined to trust government than the people themselves. They see the role of government as a great provider of goods and services and have little faith in the individual to solve his own problems.
Republicans are more conservative than Democrats. Conservatives believe in less government control of the environment and business. They want fewer and less comprehensive government programs to address real or perceived social ills. They believe in personal responsibility and trust individuals to make decisions for themselves. Republicans believe in a strict literal interpretation of the Constitution. A person should find out which of these philosophies best fits their view if they wish to actively participate in the political process.
Party affiliation is important. Washington’s prophecy has come to past, and political parties have been used to empower “unprincipled men,” on both sides of the aisle, but like it or not, political parties are a reality in our system of government. Each concerned citizen should evaluate the philosophy, values, beliefs and tenets of each Party and align their party affiliation accordingly.

FAIR AND BIASED

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

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PARTY AFFILIATION IS IMPORTANT! by Steve Fair- written in 2009

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