Weekly Opinion/Editorial

OKLAHOMA BECOMING MORE RED!

by Steve Fair

The latest voter registration data was released by the Oklahoma State Election Board last week and it shows Republicans have made significant gains across the state in voter registration since January 15, 2010. As of October 15^th, there is a total of 2,079,014 voters statewide. That compares to 2,038,620 in January 2010. There are an additional 40,394 voters in Oklahoma. During the ten(10) month period, Republican voters increased by 28,599(+3.4%), Democrats by 313(+Even) and Independents by 11,482(+4.8%).

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Republicans are the majority party in twenty two(22) of the state’s seventy seven(77) counties, including the state’s five largest counties. Voters registered Democrat are 48.1% of the total in the state, Republicans are 40.5%, and Independents are 11.4%.

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In my home county-Stephens County- there are just 459(+1.7%) new voters since January. There are now 26,064 total voters in the county. 14,610(56.1%) are registered Democrat, 9,214(35.3%) are Republican, and 2.240(8.6%) are Independent.

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Since January 2010, Democrat voters in Stephens County have declined by 96(-1.3 percentage point), Republicans have increased by 428(+1 percentage point), and Independents increased by 127(-.4 percentage points). Stephens County voter registration grew slightly less than statewide- 1.9% vs. 1.7%.

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Bottom line- Oklahoma is becoming redder. Makes sense since Oklahoma means 'Red People,' in Choctaw.

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Statistics can bore you to tears or be used to understand behavior. As Scottish poet Andrew Lang said, “An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination.” So what can we learn from these numbers?

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First, the statistics reveal that Oklahomans are aligning their political party affiliation with their voting habits. Oklahoma is a conservative state where the majority of the citizens are conservative thinkers. They are pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, fiscally conservative and somewhat ‘Libertarian’ in their thinking. Oklahoma has not voted for the Democrat nominee for President since 1964.

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In 2008, Oklahoma was the only state in the country where all counties voted for John McCain. Four of the five members of Congress representing Oklahoma are R’s as are both U.S. Senators.

In 2004, Oklahoma voters gave Republicans control of the State House.

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In 2006, Senator Anthony Sykes, (R-Moore), then a little known political outsider beat a Democrat incumbent to give the Republicans a ‘tie’ in the Senate. In 2008, Republicans won outright control of the State Senate.

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Republicans are making inroads in County Courthouses. The county elected officials in the five largest counties in the state in population are mostly Republican. It has taken rural Oklahomans a little more time to align with their convictions, but that is happening in increasingly large numbers. In Little Dixie, (Durant) which is a heavily Democrat area in registration, a former aide to Senator Tom Coburn, Josh Brecheen, is leading in recent polls over Democrat incumbent State Senator Jay Paul Gumm. Twenty years ago that would have been unheard of, but in 2010, it’s the norm.

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Secondly, the stats reveal that Independents may have peaked in Oklahoma. Voters often register independent because they are disgruntled Republicans who want to send a message to Party leadership. Independents, as a percentage, declined in Oklahoma in the past ten months.

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Thirdly, the numbers reveal that it is not just the larger counties in Oklahoma where Republican have made significant gains. Many rural counties are electing Republicans to county offices for the first time in state history. The gains Republicans have made in the state legislature have not been in the larger metropolitan areas. It has been in rural Oklahoma where many of the voters are registered Democrat. As those voters have become more comfortable having Republicans representing them, they have aligned with their convictions and changed parties.

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What the numbers don’t reveal is the motivation behind the changes. A recent poll may. Rasmussen did a poll in late September which revealed that over two thirds of Oklahomans disapprove of the job Barrick Obama has done as President. That same poll showed that one third of Oklahoma voters identify themselves as a member of the ‘Tea Party,’ and trust Republicans more than Democrats on the handling of the economy, taxes and immigration by wide margins.

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A recent Sooner Poll conducted for The Tulsa World shows the Republican candidate leading in every statewide race. A ‘sweep’ of the statewide offices is very possible. The key is voter turnout. There is no excuse not to vote in our state. Oklahoma has in-person absentee balloting. You can vote the Friday, Saturday or Monday before November 2^nd at the County Courthouse.

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If Oklahoma voters elect a Republican Governor, it will be the first time in state history Republicans will control the State House, Senate and the Governership at the same time. If that happens, it would be historic, but making history doesn’t guarantee effective leadership- it only provides the opportunity.