THE TRENDS ARE LOOKING RED!

By Steve Fair

SoonerPoll recently conducted a poll showing the Oklahoma Republican Party is viewed more favorably than the Oklahoma Democrat Party. According to Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll, 55.1% of Oklahoma voters view Rs in a favorable light. That is up by 5.1% from last year. During the same period, the favorability ranking for the state Democrat Party dropped 5.1% to 38.7%. *****

OU political science professor Keith Gaddie says he thought the shift indicated a collapse of the “concept of the Oklahoma Democrat as a brand.” The latest poll results, which come in the wake of an election year that saw sweeping Republican gains in Oklahoma, seem to cement Gaddie’s inferences.

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“When you’re at the tail end of a realignment, one expects to see a convergence of party assessment across levels of office,” Gaddie said. “What we’re seeing in Oklahoma probably indicates the beginning of the sounding of bottom for the Democrats.”

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But it’s not just in Oklahoma where Republicans are making gains on Democrats. Since 1992, the Gallup Poll has conducted a national poll gauging the favorability ranking of the two major U.S. political parties. In 2006, the poll showed the National Democrat Party with a 52% favorability ranking, the National Republican Party at just 37%. But a poll conducted in September 2010 revealed the Rs and Ds are now tied- both with favorability rankings at 44%.

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The favorable rankings shift appears to be manifesting themselves in voter registration numbers in the Sooner state. As of January 15, 2011, there are 2,090,130 total registered voters in Oklahoma. 47.8% of those voters are registered Democrat, 40.6% are registered Republican and 11.5% Independent. The voter rolls grew by 51,510 in the past year. Republicans added 37,174 to their ranks, Independents 15,248 and Democrats gained only 88 voters. Since 2006, Oklahoma has gained a total of 80,157 voters. Republicans are up 69,927 voters, Democrats down by 21,110 and Independents were up 31,340.

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Voters who register Independent in Oklahoma have grown as a percentage of registered voters from 10.4% in 2006 to 11.5% in 2011. Just fifteen years ago, Independents represented only 4.7% of the electorate in Oklahoma.

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Why do people register Independent in Oklahoma? Since Oklahoma has ‘closed’ primaries, Independents only get to vote in the general election. Independents should research the platforms of both major parties and align with the one that best represents their values, so they can participate in the process in the primary.

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In Stephens County, Republican voter registration is up by 20% in the past five years. Democrat voter numbers have shrink by 9% during the same period. Republicans are now 35.6% of the registered voters, Democrats represent 55.6% and Independents are 8.7% of the total. In the past five years Democrats have lost 1,441 voters, Republicans gained 1,876 and Independents gained 559.

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Why are voters leaving the Democrat Party in Oklahoma and Stephens County? There are two primary reasons. First, Oklahoma is a conservative state and the Republican Party is more conservative than the Democrat party. The Ds positions on social issues such as abortion and same sex marriage have pushed conservative Democrats to the Republican Party. Another issue where the two parties polarize is the right to bear arms. Second amendment advocates are fleeing the Party of Jefferson in record numbers.

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Second, just eight years ago, Democrats controlled the Oklahoma legislature, the Governor’s office and most of the statewide elected offices and had for over a century. In the not so recent past, Republicans being elected to county offices in rural Oklahoma was as rare as a good hair day for Donald Trump. But times have changed. In November, Oklahoma voters gave Republicans control of Oklahoma state government. All statewide elected officials and both chambers of the legislature are controlled by Republicans for the first time in state history. That has made it easier for citizens to align with their values. The old argument that you had to be registered Democrat to participate in the process in rural Oklahoma just doesn’t hold water anymore.

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Many elected officials in Oklahoma with a D beside their name are ashamed of what the national Democrat Party stands for. It’s clear that at some point some Democrat county elected official or legislator is going to show that courage and switch Party affiliation. It will be interesting to see where and when.

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Just because Republicans are viewed favorably by 55% of Oklahoma voters, it doesn’t automatically mean we get better government or that Republicans can coast. It just means the public believes the campaign promises and messages the Rs ran on in 2010. The key is for Oklahoma Republicans who were elected delivering that message to now execute what they promised; otherwise the Republican ‘brand’ could collapse like a house of cards.