VOTER TURNOUT IS KEY!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MIDTERMS!

by Steve Fair

 

Midterm elections occur every four years—exactly halfway through a presidential term. They are critical in determining the balance of power in Washington.  TheY determine the sitting president's legislative agenda and judicial confirmations.  All 435 members of the House of Representatives are on the ballot and normally 1/3 of the 100 Senate seats.  But with special elections, 2026 will have 35 Senate races, including one in Oklahoma. 

The current balance of power in Congress has Republicans controlling both chambers with razor thin margins.  The U.S. Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.  The GOP has 218 seats in the House with Democrats holding 215 (2 seats are open). 

The future balance of power hinges on 20 key toss-up House races and 6 Senate races, (including one in Texas), It is a long shot the Democrats can gain control of the Senate, but they hold the edge in the House if history is any indicator.

Since World War II, the Party of the sitting president has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate in the midterm elections.  Only twice (1934 and 2002) has the president's Party gained seats in both chambers in the midterms.  Three observations:

First, midterm elections are regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.  Can Republicans run on President Trump's second term performance?    The latest Quinnipiac University poll found only 32 percent of all registered voters support how President Trump has handled his second term in office. Fifty-eight percent of respondents disapprove.  That could prove to be a problem in the general elections.  Swing voters often determine the winner in toss-up races and an unpopular president could be the difference in winning and losing.  Trump remains popular among most Republicans.  He has a 79% approval rate, but that number is down 10 points in the past two months.

Second, President Trump's hold on the GOP has visibly weakened.  Just last week, three Republicans endorsed by the president lost their primary race.  In all, 10 GOP nominees for Congress or statewide office endorsed by Trump, have lost this cycle. Just a few months ago, when Trump helped bring about an apparent end to the political careers of Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, and Texas Senator John Cornyn, his blessing appears to not carry the same weight it did.  Part of the reason is Trump has endorsed some lousy candidates who are unqualified to do the job and voters didn't blindly follow his advice. 

Third, the balance of power in Congress always hinges on turnout.  Small shifts in who shows up at the polls can flip the House and Senate and alter the trajectory of government.  Historically the Party out of power is more motivated than the Party in power.  A recent HarrisX poll found Trump/MAGA Republicans were more likely to vote than Democrats (70%-63%).  Will GOP voters follow up and show up in record numbers in November?  It remains to be seen.

President Trump consistently defies historical conventional political wisdom.  His ability to motivate his base is unprecedented in U.S. history.  If anyone can get the causal GOP voter off the couch and to the polls, it's Trump.

David Letterman said about the midterms: "Tomorrow is Election Day. It's what they call the midterm elections, and you can cut the indifference with a knife. It's the day Americans leave work early and pretend to vote."

Republicans better not just pretend to vote in November if they want to retain the balance of power.