Trump preaching to the choir!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

SNAP THOSE GALLUSES!

by Steve Fair

 

President Donald Trump is coming to Durant, Oklahoma for a rally on Thursday.  The rally will be held in the heart of the Choctaw reservation at the Choctaw casino's event center.  The Durant location was chosen because of its close proximity to Texas, where Senate candidate Ken Paxton is reportedly in a tight race.  Those who want to attend the rally can request up to four tickets on the OKGOP website.  There is no charge for tickets.

Trump will be their third president to visit the Choctaw nation.  President Theodore Roosevelt visited in 1905 to give a speech preparing Oklahomans for statehood just 2 years later.  President Barack Obama visited in 2015 to discuss economic opportunities with tribal leaders.  Choctaw leaders say the tribe is not endorsing- they are just renting the Rs space.

The Oklahoma Education Television Authority (OETA) gubernatorial debate scheduled for that evening between Republican candidate Mike Mazzei and Democrat Cyndi Munson will be recorded and aired on OETA at 7pm on Thursday. 

The last time President Trump came to the Sooner state was in June 2020.  The Tulsa campaign rally was well-attended and blamed by Tulsa county health officials for an uptick in COVID cases.  Bear in mind, the Tulsa County health department is among the most liberal in the U.S., so take what they say with a grain of salt.   

With a month until the general election, here are three admonitions:

First, voters cast their ballot for Party platforms, not candidates.  People who "snap their galluses," and claim they "vote for the man, not the Party," are sadly mistaken.  Once a legislator is elected, the lawmaker will 'caucus' with a Party.  A Democrat may claim to be independent, moderate, and willing to work across the aisle, but they will join the Democrat 'caucus.'  The 'caucus' calls the shots and sets the agenda.  The same goes for Republican candidates.  Independent thinking is discouraged in the legislature because it gums up the agenda.  Sadly, it's more about numbers than principle.

Second, Democrats are more liberal than Republicans.  Their platform is more liberal.  The reason a candidate runs as a Democrat is because the platform is closer to what they believe than the GOP one.  When voters in a Party refuse to support the primary winner because they believe the victor is either too liberal or too conservative, they unknowingly further the opposition's agenda.  Party identification is a reliable decision-making tool, because generally candidates align with their party's platform.

Third, if Democrats take control of Congress, things will get worse.  Things aren't that great now.  Trump's economic policies have yet to produce what he thought they would. Gas and food prices are up.  His foreign policy hasn't produced the results he promised.  Republican voters have legitimate concerns about Trump's policies and that hesitating/wavering might not be enough to get them to vote for a Democrat, but it could be enough for them to stay home. 

Trump will have to rally those who don't show up in Durant.  Flashy assemblies fire up the attendees who were going to show up at the polls anyway.  It's 'preaching to the choir.'  In the next 30 days, individual campaigns better have a plan to get their vote out rather than relying on Trump to motivate lazy Rs to get to the polls.  That's about as safe a bet as a slot machine at the casino.

THE WORLD IS AN UNSTABLE PLACE!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

by Steve Fair

The world is an unstable place.  It often seems things are hanging by a thread. Russia invaded Ukraine four- and one-half years ago.  That conflict has resulted in Russia occupying roughly 20% of the Ukraine, but at a cost.  Over 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, with another 1.5 million missing or wounded.  Ukrainian solider deaths are estimated between 125,000 and 150,000, with another 500,000 missing or wounded. 

Ukraine has become a global leader in military drone technology.  Their drone technology has impressed governments and defense manufacturers around the world.  Ukrainian hit Moscow on Sunday with over 1,000 of those domestically produced drones that hit an oil refinery and several other targets. 

In the middle east, Saudi-led coalition forces fighting Yemen’s Houthis intercepted and destroyed the Iran-backed group's ballistic missile fired at Riyadh at dawn.  The group has already hit a Saudi pipeline, disrupting oil distribution.  That coupled with the worldwide shortage of refining capacity has driven up the price of gasoline and diesel. Three observations:

First, high fuel costs could impact upcoming midterm election.  The Economist now gives Democrats a 93% chance (up from 77% in July) of flipping the U.S. House and a

59% (up from 45% in July) of taking the Senate.  The increases for the Ds are primarily driven by higher prices for gasoline and food.  If Trump can engineer a deal with Iran and stabilize the area, most likely the price of fuel will quickly come down, which could create a shift back to the GOP. 

Second, the lack of refinery capacity is the real issue.  Crude oil doesn’t become gasoline on its own — it has to be refined, and the U.S. has been quietly losing refining capacity for years. The U.S. has 620,000 barrels per day less refinery capacity than it had in 2019.

That capacity is not coming back immediately and consumers pay the price for that capacity shortage directly at the pump.  Couple that with government environmental regulations and the Renewal Fuel Standard mandate, oil companies aren't willing to invest in new domestic refineries.  At a recent White House meeting, oil executives discussed the capacity issues and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The RFS requires oil refiners and importers to blend 15.5% for total renewable fuel and 6.42% for advanced biofuels in 2026.  The hickory nuts (oil field jargon for veteran) told Trump the blending targets are unattainable.  Whether the targets are relaxed remains to be seen.

Third, all politics are local.  Voter behavior and winning elections depend on how well a candidate addresses issues important to those voters.  Most of the time, national issues are not in the decision tree, with the exception of economic issues.  People vote based on how the Party in power has performed in keeping prices and taxes down.  Trump and the GOP led Congress did lower taxes through the 'Big Beautiful Bill," but the price of food and fuel have increased vs. two years ago.  While those high prices will likely come down, it may not be before the midterms.

It may look bleak for GOP in the midterms, but things can quickly change.  As Crown prosecutor Gérard de Ville fort said in The Count of Monte Cristo: “On what slender threads do life and fortune hang…!”

Voter Engagement is more effective ONE AT A TIME!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MASS COMMUNICATING!

by Steve Fair

 

Last week, the Republican National Committee held a Midterm convention in Dallas.  Unlike the quadrennial nominating convention where the president and vice president nominees are selected, no official GOP Party business was conducted.  A Midterm convention for Republicans is nothing more than political theatre. 

The Democrats have held three midterm conventions- in 1974, 1978, and 1982.  They used the midterm conventions to debate Party rules and their platform.  The GOP convention in Dallas was an attempt by President Trump to 'get the vote out' for the upcoming November midterms.  Three observations:

First, the Republican Party is fractured.  The Grand Ole Party has deep internal strife between the MAGA base and the non-MAGA minority.  Some Republicans disagree with President Trump's military action in Iran, his policy on tariffs, and immigration and that disagreement is considered treason by the MAGA crowd.  The MAGA crowd requires complete and mandatory agreement with the president's actions.  They insult and put down anyone who presents a critical assessment of Trump's deeds, labeling them RINOS (Republicans in Name Only).  That presents a problem when you need RINOS to win.  If Republicans continue to work against each other instead of together, expect the GOP to lose big in November.

Second, Trump appealed primarily to his base.  "Pretend that I'm on the ballot.  Just one more time," the president exhorted the Dallas crowd.  While the president is term limited and isn't on the midterm ballot, his policies clearly are.    According to the Economist, Trump's approval rating among college-educated Americans has fallen sharply in recent weeks- from 34% to less than 30%.  Those are usually Republican voters, so pretending Trump is on the ballot with that demographic is probably not a sound campaign strategy. 

Third, Trump's coattails could turn out to be a drag.  Candidates running in down ticket races often benefit or are harmed by those at the top of the ticket.  Nationally, that may not be the case this year.  Here in conservative Oklahoma, candidates latch themselves to Trump like a horse to a buggy.  Candidate's mailers, TV ads and social media proclaim how much more Trump they are than their opponent.  But that may not work even in the Sooner state in a general election when the voters tend to not as conservative.  Those pesky moderate Rs might not vote for a Democrat, but they a race blank. 

Republican candidates in Oklahoma are expected to cruise to victory in November, but that is likely not the case nationwide.  In many states congressional races are considered toss-ups and many political prognosticators are predicting a bloodbath for Republicans in November. 

No one fires up their base like Donald Trump, but he is going to need more than just the base to retain the U.S. House.  He needs the RINOs, Americans for No Prosperity, Globalists Club for No Group and many other voter groups he has insulted to triumph in November. 

The RNC would have been better served spending their money on local get out the vote efforts in close congressional district races than staging a 3-day rally preaching to the choir. 

But the president calls the shots at the Republican National Committee and Trump subscribes to Pappy O'Daniel's philosophy: "We ain't one-at-a-timin' here. We're MASS communicating!"  Big rallies and lots of boring speeches may impress those already planning to vote Red in November, but swing voters are better reached one-at-a-timing.

WORKERS ARE BACKBONE OF AMERICA!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MADE IN AMERICA!

by Steve Fair

 

Most people only see Labor Day as a day off work and the unofficial end of Summer, but the holiday's origin is more significant.  The first Labor Day celebration took place in New York City in 1882.  More than 10,000 workers took unpaid time off to join the protest for better working conditions. 

The New York Tribune reported, "The windows and roofs and even the lamp posts and awning frames were occupied by persons anxious to get a good view of the first parade in New York of workingmen of all trades united in one organization."  Labor Day became a national holiday in 1894.  Some thoughts about Oklahoma and Labor Day:

Oklahoma's official state motto is "Labor Omnia Vincit" (Latin for "Labor Conquers All").  The motto reflects the strong political influence of organized labor groups during the creation of the state's constitution in 1907.

Well before Oklahoma was the 'reddest state in the U.S.," the Sooner state was a hotbed for powerful trade unionism, and the strongest regional Socialist movement in United States history.  Only Wisconsin had a larger state caucus of elected socialists. 

Oklahoma's organized labor roots remained influential for nearly a century.  The state didn't officially become a right-to-work state until 2001, when 54% of voters passed State Question #695 to make it illegal to require union membership or the payment of union dues as a condition of employment.  Three observations regarding Labor Day:

First, the number of working men is declining.  According to a recent Department of Labor survey, male workforce participation has dropped significantly from a peak of 86.4% in 1950 to 66.8% last year.  Roughly 6.8 million men ages 25-34 aren't even looking for work.  Over half of these non-working prime-age men cite physical health issues, serious illness, or disabilities as the main reason they aren't working.  

Linkenln, the world’s largest online professional network, claims the reason men are not working is not a declining work ethic, but the mismatch between worker expectations of fair treatment and the realities of modern corporate structures. 

President Grant said, "Labor disgraces no man; unfortunately, you occasionally find men who disgrace labor."  In other words, some people just will not work.

Second, U.S. productivity is up.  According to the Department of Labor, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased +1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026.  In the manufacturing sector, the increase was +2.4%.  The obvious benefactors of increased productivity are business owners, but if those efficiencies are passed on to employees and consumers, all profit.  If they aren't then productivity will suffer and those profits will dissipate. 

Third, everyone works for themself.  Employees trade their time, skills and labor for a paycheck, career advancement or personal growth.  If an employer is a short sighted, skin flint miser cheapskate tightwad, they have the choice to look for someone who will pay them for their services.  Working for an employer is not the priesthood.  It is a transactional business contract, not a spiritual calling or a total life devotion.  Employers who mistreat their most precious resource- their workers- will not prosper.

American workers are the backbone of the United States.  They have built the highest standard of living in the world.  Everyone benefits when they are taken care of.  For years, U.S. companies sought out the cheapest labor and many manufacturers moved them production overseas.  The Trump administration has done an excellent job of getting many companies to return to domestic production.  American workers, consumers and business owners need to recognize the strategic advantages in national security having products Made in America provides.

Controversy is a last resort for the TALENTLESS!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

GRANDSTANDING!

by Steve Fair

 

Fourteen states, including Oklahoma have constitutions that require a vote regarding a constitutional convention.  The intervals of frequency and the provision on who calls for the vote vary state by state. 

Article XXIV, Section 2 of the Oklahoma Constitution mandates the question of whether to call a state constitutional convention must be submitted to the voters at least once every 20 years.  The last time Oklahoma voters voted on Article XXIV, Section 2 was in 1970- 56 years have passed since the issue has been on the ballot.

On Wednesday, Governor Kevin Stitt issued an executive order to place proposed State Question 848 (SQ#848) on the ballot for a special election to be held April 6, 2027. 

Stitt's order also instructs the Secretary of State to create the Oklahoma Constitutional Convention Commission (OCCC).  The Commission is tasked with studying the Oklahoma Constitution and make recommendations about the procedures and rules that would govern a state constitutional convention, if voters approve SQ#848.   The OCCC are to submit their recommendations by 12/31/26. 

Oklahoma Attorney General Drummond and several Oklahoma state legislators don't believe Stitt has the authority to unilaterally place a State Question on the ballot.  It is likely the courts will decide the fate of Stitt's order.  Three observations:

First, it is past time to vote on a constitutional convention.  Past elected officials have simply ignored the constitutional provision for a vote for the past 1/2 century.   They feared a runaway constitutional convention could spiral out of control and result in chaos. 

Whether Article XXIV, Section 2 should be in the constitution is subject to debate, but so long as it remains in the document, it should be adhered to.  This past legislative session, the legislature debated the issue.  The Senate and House couldn't agree on how many delegates to a proposed convention would be appointed by each chamber, so the Joint Resolution failed.

Second, most Oklahoma voters could care less about a constitutional convention.  Most Okies have no idea Oklahoma's state constitution is one of the longest and most detailed state constitutions in America.  Drafted in 1907, primarily by tribal leaders, progressive Democrats, and future governor Charles Haskell, using the rejected 1905 Cherokee/Sequoyah Constitution as a framework, the document has a clear populist bent.  

Rural Oklahoma was surprising a hotbed for socialism in 1907.  The Sooner state had a higher percentage of registered Socialist Party members than any other state. 

That explains why Oklahoma was the first state to include a provision for an initiative petition process, empowering private citizens to amend the constitution without the legislature. 

The document fragments power in government.  Oklahoma directly elects more statewide officers vs. other states.  The state constitution also limits the power of the Oklahoma governor.  But most Oklahoma citizens don't care about a constitutional convention.  That is why no pressure has been put on elected officials about Article XXIV, Section 2. 

Third, the issue is being used to grandstand.  Stitt apparently failed to communicate with legislative leaders or the Attorney General before he issued his decree.  Why?  Because the guv knew his action would raise their blood pressure and get headlines.  Stitt could have addressed a vote on Article XXIV, Section 2 early in his eight-year tenure, but chose to wait until now and his edict isn't executed until he is out of office.  Stitt's timing is suspect.  Political games by elected officials waste taxpayer dollars and are exhausting.  Controversy is a last resort for the talentless.   

The legislature should work next session to get the state question on the ballot next year.  Oklahoma citizens should recognize the risks involved in holding a constitutional convention.  It could result in a bigger mess of a state government than already have.

VOTER TURNOUT IS KEY!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MIDTERMS!

by Steve Fair

 

Midterm elections occur every four years—exactly halfway through a presidential term. They are critical in determining the balance of power in Washington.  TheY determine the sitting president's legislative agenda and judicial confirmations.  All 435 members of the House of Representatives are on the ballot and normally 1/3 of the 100 Senate seats.  But with special elections, 2026 will have 35 Senate races, including one in Oklahoma. 

The current balance of power in Congress has Republicans controlling both chambers with razor thin margins.  The U.S. Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.  The GOP has 218 seats in the House with Democrats holding 215 (2 seats are open). 

The future balance of power hinges on 20 key toss-up House races and 6 Senate races, (including one in Texas), It is a long shot the Democrats can gain control of the Senate, but they hold the edge in the House if history is any indicator.

Since World War II, the Party of the sitting president has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate in the midterm elections.  Only twice (1934 and 2002) has the president's Party gained seats in both chambers in the midterms.  Three observations:

First, midterm elections are regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.  Can Republicans run on President Trump's second term performance?    The latest Quinnipiac University poll found only 32 percent of all registered voters support how President Trump has handled his second term in office. Fifty-eight percent of respondents disapprove.  That could prove to be a problem in the general elections.  Swing voters often determine the winner in toss-up races and an unpopular president could be the difference in winning and losing.  Trump remains popular among most Republicans.  He has a 79% approval rate, but that number is down 10 points in the past two months.

Second, President Trump's hold on the GOP has visibly weakened.  Just last week, three Republicans endorsed by the president lost their primary race.  In all, 10 GOP nominees for Congress or statewide office endorsed by Trump, have lost this cycle. Just a few months ago, when Trump helped bring about an apparent end to the political careers of Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, and Texas Senator John Cornyn, his blessing appears to not carry the same weight it did.  Part of the reason is Trump has endorsed some lousy candidates who are unqualified to do the job and voters didn't blindly follow his advice. 

Third, the balance of power in Congress always hinges on turnout.  Small shifts in who shows up at the polls can flip the House and Senate and alter the trajectory of government.  Historically the Party out of power is more motivated than the Party in power.  A recent HarrisX poll found Trump/MAGA Republicans were more likely to vote than Democrats (70%-63%).  Will GOP voters follow up and show up in record numbers in November?  It remains to be seen.

President Trump consistently defies historical conventional political wisdom.  His ability to motivate his base is unprecedented in U.S. history.  If anyone can get the causal GOP voter off the couch and to the polls, it's Trump.

David Letterman said about the midterms: "Tomorrow is Election Day. It's what they call the midterm elections, and you can cut the indifference with a knife. It's the day Americans leave work early and pretend to vote."

Republicans better not just pretend to vote in November if they want to retain the balance of power.

SANDERS IDENTIFIED THE PROBLEM- BUT HAS THE WRONG SOLUTION!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

ROBIN WAS A THIEF!

by Steve Fair

 

Democratic Socialism is a political and economic system that combines a democratic secular government with a worker-owned economy.  Those who subscribe to Democratic Socialism want to replace America's capitalism economic system with a system based on human need rather than private profit.  Democratic Socialism is just  a half click away from communism. 

Both system critique capitalism and seek economic equality, but they differ fundamentally on governance and methods. Democratic socialism combines a socially oriented economy with multi-party, political democracy and civil liberties. Communism, is historically rooted in Marxism/Leninism.  Communism envisions a classless, stateless society where all property and the means of production are commonly owned and run by a single party. 

Prominent self-identified Democrat Socialists currently in Congress include House Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, (D-NY) and Rashida Tlaib, (D-MI) alongside Senator Bernie Sanders, (D-VT) in the Senate.  All three members caucus with the Democrats. 

In recent Democrat primaries, Democratic Socialist and left-wing candidates have secured notable primary victories by defeating long-serving incumbents in safe Democratic congressional and state legislative districts.   Socialism is now mainstream inside the Democratic Party.  According to a recent Washington Post poll, 75% of registered Democrats said they would be open to a Democrat Socialist for president.  The same poll showed 55% of all voters wouldn't.  A Fox News poll found 52% of Democrats view socialism favorably.  Among young adults (ages 18-34), nearly half hold a favorable view of socialism.  That is mainly driven by economic pessimism, high living costs, and a rejection of traditional establishment politics.  Three observations:

First, Uncle Bernie Sanders correctly identified the problem.  U.S. income and wealth inequality is at historic highs.  Federal Reserve data shows the top 1% of the population in America control 31% of the nation's wealth.  That top 1% has more wealth than the bottom 90% combined.  A Pew Research poll revealed the percentage of adults in 'middle-income households' fell from 61% in 1971 to less than 50% last year.  America's middle class is shrinking. A large portion of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. But while Bernie got the diagnosis right, his treatment is way off. 

Second, government is not the solution.  Sanders and the liberals seek to take from the rich and give to the poor.  They want government to regulate more by forcing private businesses to pay higher wages to their employees, force landlords to lower rent, and cap profits for businesses.  Excessive government regulation, or red tape will lower productivity by forcing businesses to divert time, money, and labor away from core output and innovation toward mandatory compliance tasks.  Government deregulation is the solution.  Removing roadblocks will spur growth and personal incentive. 

Third, Republicans are losing the battle for the minds of America's youth.  Historically the GOP championed the philosophy of limited government, lower taxes, and reduced federal intervention in the economy.  But Republicans have deficit spent and over regulated just like the Democrats.  Young people see little to no difference between a capitalist and a socialist.  They don't understand that nothing is free and that someone is always paying the bill.  That's the result of overregulation and government overreach- ignorance and cynicism.  Who can blame the youth when people act only out of self-interest?  The logical conclusion is pessimism and distrust of those in control. 

Robin Hood stole from the rich and gave to the poor.  Robin justified his actions as righting what he perceived as wrongs.  He once said, "Rob? That's a naughty word, we never rob!  We just sort of... borrow a bit from those who can afford it."  

That is the goal of socialism- take hard working people's money to give to those who will not work.  But no matter how he spun it- Robin was still a thief!