BROKERED CONVENTION AND NOSE PLUGS!

by Steve Fair

A year ago, who would have thought that Republicans would know who their presidential nominee for the 2008 race before the Democrats? But that appears to be the case. Senator John McCain, R-AZ, has a huge delegate lead in the GOP race over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. On the Democrat side, the race is still too close to call with only a handful of delegates separating Senators Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and Barack Obama, D-IL. For Huckabee to knock off the maverick McCain, he would have to win 85% of the remaining delegates, which is not likely to happen. But the Democrats have a very real possibility of going to their national convention without a chosen nominee. The last brokered convention the Democrats had was in 1952 when Adlai Stevenson was nominated by the Dems, but lost in the general election. The last open convention the Republicans held was in 1948 when Thomas Dewey as selected to be the nominee. The modern national political convention is more of a coronation than a true part of the selection process, but that could very well change with the Democrats this year.

Fellow blogger Mark Hutchinson says that brokered conventions are more fun. In his blog The Hutch Report, Hutchinson said, “A brokered convention is fun to watch because none of the traditional power players are in control of events. While party professionals love to show a party united going into and out of a national convention, most people watching at home would like to see a little bit of competition in the system.”

One crucial change among Democrats came in 1982, when the party introduced superdelegates. By official act, all congressmen, governors, and a number of party officials were dubbed superdelegates and given a single vote at the convention, to be counted with the votes of the regular delegates that had been assigned by the state primaries. The influence of superdelegates became apparent almost immediately. In June 1984, at the end of primary season, Walter Mondale found himself just short of a majority in the delegate count. He picked up the phone, made a few calls, held a few meetings, and by the time the convention rolled around in July, he had won enough superdelegates to pitch the decision in his favor. The convention was not brokered as in 1952, but the primaries had certainly left the issue of nominating a candidate unresolved. Lobbying the Democrat superdelegates appears to be the strategy of the Clinton camp where she holds a substantial lead over Obama.

While a majority of Democrat superdelegates are elected officials, some are not. Take for example, former Oklahoma US Senator, Walters native and one-time presidential candidate Fred Harris. According to The Albuquerque Tribune, the former DNC Chair is Obama's only superdelegate voter in New Mexico. "I'll be (for) Obama for as long as he's in the race," Harris said. "Unless he withdraws, which I don't expect."

Because superdelegates make up twenty percent of the Dems delegate total and are not locked to presidential primary or caucus results, they are a huge factor in the Dems process and can in effect nominate someone that was not the clear choice of the people. That’s not likely to happen because as Alex Knapp from Outside the Beltway concludes, “Let’s get one thing straight–Hillary Clinton is no fool. She has to know that a Democratic convention where Obama has the majority of pledged delegates, but she wins the nomination by virtue of superdelegates is a convention that she does not want. It would alienate a substantial portion of her own party”

Watching the Democrat primary has been surprisingly entertaining since everyone- including Hillary- thought she would have the nomination sewed up by now. 2008 may well turn out to be the year of the second choice. John Edwards has just sixty-two delegates and both Clinton and Obama are lobbying him for an endorsement because while his delegate count is small, it might just be the difference in winning and losing.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have their challenges in coming to grips with a likely nominee that has many times been on the liberal side of issues. Some call him a maverick- others the name of a related four footed beast of burden, but if John McCain wins the presidency he must unite the party. One of the worst things he can do is to ignore the Christian right and their voting impact. McCain’s mother flatly stated the conservative Christian base of the Republican Party would have to “ hold their nose and vote for John.” Mom is wrong- they don’t have to do that. While they will not compromise their convictions and vote for a liberal candidate, they can stay home. They stayed home in 2006 and Republicans lost control of the U.S. House. I'm hoping most of my fellow conservatives will wear nose plugs(see above), go into the booth and vote for McCain- the RINO(Republican in Name Only) that he is. The $64 dollar question is- will there be enough that will take my counsel?

Four things the McCain people need to quit doing:
(1) Quit telling us he is a true conservative.
(2) Quit telling us to get over it and vote for him FOR THE GOOD OF THE PARTY.
(3) Quit trying to spin his record like a disc jockey.
(4) Quit writting his speeches to include the phase My friends twenty times.

Three things the McCain people need to start doing:
(1) Start empahsizing McCain's stellar support for the military.
(2) Start listening to the Christian right on how to energize the base.
(3) Start talking about the economy and how they plan to kickstart it.

Free advise- worth what it cost!