Tom Cole is upbeat while House GOP plays defense
By Aaron Blake from The Hill

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) is fond of saying things could be a lot worse for his party, but heading into the sixth and seventh special elections of the 2008 election cycle, House Republicans remain very much in a defense mode. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which Cole heads, is spending precious millions to save conservative districts and not registering an independent expenditure on either of its potential takeovers. Voters in Illinois will head to the polls Saturday to tap a successor to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), and the race to replace the late Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.) will follow three days later.

In Illinois, despite having a candidate in businessman Jim Oberweis who has spent nearly $3 million of his own money on the race, the NRCC has been forced to sink more than $1.2 million into retaining a district that gave President Bush 55 percent of the vote in 2004. Losing Hastert’s seat would be a significant blow to the GOP. At a breakfast Monday with reporters, Cole said he recognizes “the symbolic importance of the race” and acknowledged that he is well aware of the public relations fiasco that may be looming, saying a Democratic win will “be spun out of all proportion.”

Meanwhile, in Carson’s district, where an unknown and cash-strapped Republican took 46 percent last year, the GOP has apparently resigned itself to letting the race play out largely on its own.

Cole likened the Indiana race to a Massachusetts special election from October of last year, where retired Air Force Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (R) came within six points of an upset of now-Rep. Niki Tsongas (D). The NRCC hasn’t made an independent expenditure in either race.
“We did a lot [in Massachusetts], but we didn’t go bet the barn because you had two races coming on Dec. [11] — open Republican seats,” Cole said. “Those were infinitely more important and more winnable for us.”

If it’s a preview of things to come, the GOP won’t be spending much money on offense this cycle, because there will be more than a dozen swing or GOP-leaning districts vacated by Republican incumbents this cycle. And those open-seat races are often the most expensive. The NRCC reported a net bankroll of just $4 million at the end of January, meaning there likely won’t be much left over for lots of uphill takeover attempts. On Dec. 11, the NRCC wound up spending $440,000 on a 14-point special election win for Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio) and another $90,000 on a 24-point special election win for Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.). Those two districts both went at least 60 percent for Bush, while Tsongas’s and Carson’s seats went 57 and 58 percent, respectively, for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).

The GOP also could be forced into some more defense with a pair of special elections in the next two months. The campaigns for the seats of former Reps. Richard Baker (R-La.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who is now a senator, both feature well-funded Democratic candidates, and both districts voted around 60 percent for Bush in 2004. Democrats are eyeing Baker’s seat in particular.

Republicans insist the Democrats were on the defensive in Massachusetts but already had a large cash advantage thanks to outside groups like Emily’s List. The GOP is also setting the bar very low in Indiana, with Cole calling it a “long shot.” NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said the committee is exercising care in dealing with GOP-held seats up for grabs in special elections.
“For Democrats to expand their majority, they will have to win in Republican-leaning districts just like the ones they have heavily invested in,” Spain said. “As we have stated all along, anything can happen in a special election, and we are taking nothing for granted.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has long insisted that it will be on the offensive this cycle. It has now spent more than $1 million on Hastert’s seat after spending $240,000 on Latta’s. The only defense it has played is $200,000 for the Indiana seat.

The NRCC listed 24 targeted districts in a memo distributed this week, including many held by Democratic freshmen and one open seat. The DCCC has said it has strong recruits in upwards of 50 GOP-held seats. Each committee has scoffed at the other’s lists of targets. An Illinois Republican consultant said the GOP’s problem is not so much the national environment as a preponderance of circumstances — namely, a sub-par candidate in Oberweis and a GOP nominee who just withdrew in the conservative-leaning battleground district of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.).

The consultant said these two will take precedence over going after perennial target Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) and that a victory in the Democratic presidential primary by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) could further hurt GOP offense in Illinois and nationwide.
“Frankly, I think, if Obama’s on the ticket, win or lose Saturday, we lose that district in November,” the consultant said.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) wrote in a briefing for supporters last month that the committee is trying to rewrite history by staying on the offense the year after a wave election — generally a difficult proposition. After shoring up their most vulnerable freshmen and other endangered members with lots of campaign cash, Democrats say they’ve positioned themselves to give it a shot.

“They’re defending seats that they never thought they would have to worry about,” said DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell. “At the same time, they haven’t been able to do the same to us, because they’ve been stretched financially and the fact that they have to defend so many seats.
“It’s hard for them to spend money on Democratic targets when they are forced to spend money on a seat like Illinois’s 14th district,” Thornell added.