WHY HAVE THE DEMOCRATS

GONE NEGATIVE?

by Steve Fair

This week Steve Burrage, the Antlers banker appointed to fill an unexpired term as State Auditor, began running an ‘attack’ ad against his opponent Gary Jones. In the TV spot, Burrage is NEVER mentioned- only his opponent. The ads are a clear 'hacket' job and should make The Oklahoman blush after their endorsement of Burrage because in their words 'he was a known quantity.' If The Oklahoman has any integrity, they will condemn Burrage's ads and retract their recommendation.

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Kenneth Corn, a termed out State Senator who has never held a real job, is running ‘attack’ ads against Todd Lamb, his opponent. The latest numbers has Lamb leading by double digits and this may be Corn's HAIL MARY pass. It's gonna be tough on Corny when he has to get a real job!

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Brett Burns, incumbent DA for District #6, has come out swinging against his Republican opponent Jason Hicks. He ran an ‘attack’ ad in the Chickasha paper. Burns' ad has a half page full of criminal mug shots- people who he has supposedly put in the pokey. The ad attacks Hicks for his so-called 'lack of experience.' The real question is not who Burns has prosecuted, it's who he hasn't. People tell me there have been a number of embezzlers that Burns has not prosecuted. Burns appears to be too cozy with DEFENSE attorneys- particularly those outside the district and gives their clients flavorable treatment over the average Joe. One law enforcement official told me he was sick of Burns selective prosecution. Hicks, a Duncan Republican, is clearly the front runner in the two largest counties in the district.

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What is up with these Democrats going negative?

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Negative campaigning is nothing new- it’s been around since the founding of the republic. John Quincy Adams went ‘negative’ in the 1828 presidential election against Andrew Jackson. If Adams were alive today and the same things said, charges would be filed. Check out the original 'Coffin Handbills' at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffin_Handbills

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Negative campaigning, also known as “mudslinging", is trying to win an advantage by referring to negative aspects of an opponent or of a policy rather than emphasizing one's own positive attributes or preferred policies. Does mudslinging work? Some say it only works when you are ahead, when you are behind or when you are even. In other words, it works all the time. Some contend that while the voting public say they despise the mudslinging commercials, they secretly love them. But who is influenced by negative ads?

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According to a 1995 study by Stephen Ansolabehere and Shato Ivengar negative ads have a greater impact on Democrats than on Republicans. The study showed that base Republicans will vote no matter what (and will vote only for a Republican), but Democrats can be influenced to either stay home and not vote at all or to switch sides and vote for a Republican. This led them to conclude that Republicans benefit more from going negative than Democrats. Ansolabehere and Ivengar also said that negative campaigning suppressed voter turnout among independents. They also conclude that mudslinging works most effectively with uninformed or under informed voters.

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So when should a campaign go negative? Cathy Allen, president of Campaign Connection of Seattle, suggested negative campaigning might be the 'proper course' during political contests in the following situations:

• when taking on an incumbent;
• when being significantly outspent;
• when there is irrefutable information that the opponent has done something wrong;
• when the candidate has little name recognition

IN OTHER WORDS- WHEN A CANDIDATE IS LOSING!

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The latest Sooner Poll numbers show Burrage and Corn both trailing their opponents. http://soonerpoll.com/poll-finds-republicans-poised-to-sweep-oklahoma%e2%80%99s-november-election/

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That explains why Oklahoma Democrat candidates are going negative. THEY ARE LOSING, but it’s not likely their tactics will work this election cycle. Oklahoma voters are engaged and motivated. They want to know where the candidates stand on the issues and negative ads turn off informed voters.

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Ed Rollins, former Reagan advisor, wrote an insightful column on why Democrats are going negative nationally. You can read the column at http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/10/06/rollins.democrats.negative/index.html?eref=rss_latest&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+Most+Recent%29