GOP WILL HOLD HOUSE & GAIN SEATS IN THE SENATE!

Weekly Opinion Editorial

MIDTERM ELECTION PREDICTION

by Steve Fair

     Midterm elections normally don’t go well for the political Party of the president.  The Party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections.  In the past 21 midterms, the President's party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House, and an average of 4 seats in the Senate.  The last time the Party of the sitting president did well in the midterms was in 2002 when George W. Bush was president.  Republicans gained 8 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate.  The last time that was done was in 1934 when FDR was president. 

     Real Clear Politics(RCP) is a Chicago political news and polling data aggregator run by former options trader John McIntyre and ad executive Tom Bevin.  RCP tracks all 435 House races and the 33 Senate races on the ballot in November 2018 using polling data from multiple sources.  They currently say that 199 seats in the House are safe Democrat seats and 194 are safe Republican, with 42 seats too close to call.  On the Senate side, they have 48 safe GOP seats and 45 safe Democrat seats with 7 as toss ups.  RCP did predict that Hillary would win by 3.3% in 2016, but virtually everyone else missed that race as well.  In the Congressional races, Republicans outperformed RCP’s prophecies by 3.3% in the 2014 mid-term, so they haven’t always been the best barometer for what will happen on election day.

     Fivethirtyeight, a website  owned by ESPN/ABC, is also a polling aggregator.  Founded by  Natt Silver, a statistician and writer whose parents are partisan Democrats, he started out as a number cruncher for Major League baseball.  Fivethirtyeight’s name is the number of presidential electors.  They predict a 75% chance the Democrats will take the House.  They also claim some Democrat Senate seats are going to be decided on whether the candidate backs President Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court.  Depending on the district, that vote could sway voters. 

     There are currently 247 Republicans in the House and 188 Democrats.  218 is the magic number needed to be the majority Party of the body.  That means the GOP can lose up to 29 seats and still retain control of the House.  In 2006, when GWB was president, Republicans lost 30 seats in the midterms so it is very possible the Democrats could flip the House.  On the Senate side, it is highly unlikely the Democrats can gain control.  Of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2018, only 8 are Republicans, 23 are Democrats, and 2 are Independents who caucus with the Democrats. It appears very likely Republicans will gain seats in the Senate.  That could mean a spilt Party Congress, which normally means gridlock.

     The only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day.  The 2018 general elections will ultimately come down to who votes.  The ‘generic’ Congressional ballot has Democrat voter enthusiasm at a much higher level than Republican, but President Trump is the master of building excitement among supporters and driving up voter turnout.  At this point in 2016, pundits had him losing to Clinton by double digits and we know how that turned out.  I predict Republicans will maintain control of both chambers in November