ONLY THE DEAD HAVE SEEN THE END OF WAR!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

WAR!

by Steve Fair

 

The United States and Israel, launched a major, two-day military operation against Iran on Saturday February 28th.  The operation targeted nuclear and missile facilities.  Iran retaliated by launching missile attacks on U.S. military installations throughout the Middle East.  Three U.S. service members were reportedly killed and five others seriously wounded in the attacks.  Dubbed Operation Epic Fury by President Donald Trump , the stated objective is to eliminate remaining nuclear and missile capabilities.  The action comes after Iran has rejected several good-faith U.S. diplomatic negotiations and the regime's massacres of thousands of its own citizens during recent protests. 

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, was killed in the attacks.  The Iranian government confirmed the supreme leader's death and announced 40 days of mourning.  Approximately 40 plus top Iranian leaders and officials were also killed.  During his 36-year rule, Khamenei was unwavering in his steadfast opposition to the U.S. and Israel and to any efforts to reform and bring Iran into the 21st century.  President Trump called Khamenei’s death “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country,” and urged Iranian citizens to seize the opportunity and take back their country.  Three observations:

First, the attacks are inconsistent with Trump's MAGA mantra.  Republicans largely rallied around the White House in the hours after the attack — insisting the time for debating U.S. intervention in Iran had passed and the GOP must unify behind the president. But many of the president’s “America First” allies questioned the wisdom of intervening in global conflicts.  One of the fundamental planks in Trump's campaign platform has been a non-interventionist stance against 'forever wars,' from previous administrations.  Some Trump supporters are criticizing for practicing what he pummels. 

Second, the strikes were launched without prior congressional authorization.  Article 1- Section 8 of the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to declare war.  Throughout America's history, presidents have frequently circumvented the formal Article I by invoking their Article II authority as Commander in Chief to engage in military actions. While the Constitution explicitly grants Congress the power to declare war, historical practice has shifted significant control over initiating armed conflict to the executive branch.  Following World War II, nearly all large-scale military conflicts—including Korea, Vietnam, and the second Iraq War—were conducted without a formal declaration of war.   

Top Congressional Democrats and Republicans that make up a group known as the Gang of Eight — party leaders from both chambers, as well as the Intelligence committees' leadership — were notified by Secretary of State Marco Rubio shortly before the attack.

Third, it remains to be seen if the attacks were a wise choice.  If the 92 million Iranian citizens embrace the opportunity and take control of their country, they could throw off the current political system and bring about reform.  But Iran's political system is built around the concept of a 'Marja al-Taqlid.'  That is a senior cleric who citizens turn to for religious guidance and legal rulings.  Until a replacement cleric is chosen, a 3-member council is in charge.  President Trump says that council is willing to talk with him.  Time will tell if they will dial down the extremism and allow for reform. 

U.S. consumers are already seeing the impact of the attacks at the pump.  Some predict gas prices could get to over $3 a gallon in the coming months.  Because of underinvestment and sanctions, Iran, which has 12% of the world's oil reserves, only accounts for 4% of global oil supply.  But it's not Iran's oil supply driving the price up- it's the instability in the Middle East.  Instability in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil travels through, is what could disrupt supply.

Since the 1930s, over half of the conflicts in the world have been disputes involving untapped oil reserves.  Oil-importing nations (the US is second behind China) tend to get involved to protect energy interests.  No matter the stated reason, countries go to war to protect their economic interests.

Philosopher George Santayana said, "Only the dead have seen the end of war."