Weekly Opinion Editorial
PURPLE OKLAHOMA?
by Steve Fair
Thirty years ago (1995), there were 1,823,748 voters registered in
Oklahoma. 62% were registered Democrat,
33% were Republican, and 5% were Independent. As of January 2025, the numbers
are much different- there are 2,470,437 registered voters in the Sooner state: 52.6% are registered Republican, 26.6% Democrat,
20% Independent, and 1% Libertarian.
Oklahoma voted Democrat in all but two presidential elections through
1948, but has not gone Democrat since, except in the landslide win for Lyndon
Johnson in 1964. In 2024, Donald
Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 66% to 32%, the sixth consecutive election the
Republican nominee has won by over 30%.
Every county in Oklahoma voted for Donald Trump the last three
elections. All members of the Oklahoma
federal delegation (2 Senators/5 Representatives) are Republican. All statewide elected officials are Republican. Republicans dominate county offices. How did the Republicans flip voter
registration in Oklahoma? First, Oklahoma
is a conservative state. As the national
Democrat Party became more liberal on social issues, conservative Democrats
changed their Party affiliation and joined the Republicans. Over 70% of
Oklahomans identify as Protestant, and most of those voters are socially
conservative. They support the Republican Party's platform on abortion,
same-sex marriage, and gun control. Second,
the oil and gas industry is a major player in the state. The GOP tends to be more supportive of the
energy sector than the Ds. The Democrat’s
war of fossil fuel didn’t set well with the thousands who make their living in
that industry. Third, Oklahoma is a
rural state. Almost two thirds of the
state’s population is in rural areas. Rural
voters tend to be more conservative and traditional in their values. But
the GOP shouldn’t take their dominance for granted. Three observations:
First, Oklahoma is changing. The
state is gaining population, after years of little growth. Oklahoma's population grew about 1% last year. The OKC and Tulsa urban areas show the highest
levels of net migration. Rural Oklahoma population
remains flat and some rural counties have
experienced population declines. Many of
the new Okies are from western states and they bring with them their politics
and values (not as conservative). That trend
has been reflected in voting in the urban areas in recent elections. GOP margins have declined and are thinner
than in years past in the larger population areas.
Second, Oklahoma Republicans have underperformed. From elected Rs not
delivering on campaign promises to GOP
Party leaders constant infighting, Republican creditability with the average Oklahoma
voter has been shattered. That’s why 1
in 5 Oklahoma voters are registered Independent, even though the GOP doesn’t
let them vote in their primary. A cynical, skeptical, and suspicious public view
GOP elected officials and Party leaders as grandstanders and self-promoters. They detect little to no difference between
the Ds and the Rs. Past strategies to
educate voters has been abandoned by the GOP for boasting, bragging and
self-glory. Until the Republican Party resumes
making the main thing the main thing, expect the average voter to be lukewarm
to the GOP.
Third, Oklahoma GOP politics has become nasty. Name-calling, backbiting, talebearing,
gossiping is unrestrained. Professing
Christians proudly proclaim their spiritual superiority and ‘thank God they are
not as other men are, even this poor fellow Republican.’ Loving thy neighbor has been cut from Bibles
with a penknife, in the name of standing for righteousness. There is no tolerance for an opposing
view. Instead of civic debate, there is required
harmony. Failure to agree (heresy)
results in being burned at the stake. If
the nastiness continues, the Oklahoma GOP will whittle the base down to where
they can handle it.
Oklahoma is trending purple. The urban areas will continue to grow at a faster rate than the rural areas, resulting in a more progressive/liberal state. The GOP better get their act together and start developing instead of dividing before the Ds take over Oklahoma politics.
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