THE WORLD IS AN UNSTABLE PLACE!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

by Steve Fair

The world is an unstable place.  It often seems things are hanging by a thread. Russia invaded Ukraine four- and one-half years ago.  That conflict has resulted in Russia occupying roughly 20% of the Ukraine, but at a cost.  Over 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, with another 1.5 million missing or wounded.  Ukrainian solider deaths are estimated between 125,000 and 150,000, with another 500,000 missing or wounded. 

Ukraine has become a global leader in military drone technology.  Their drone technology has impressed governments and defense manufacturers around the world.  Ukrainian hit Moscow on Sunday with over 1,000 of those domestically produced drones that hit an oil refinery and several other targets. 

In the middle east, Saudi-led coalition forces fighting Yemen’s Houthis intercepted and destroyed the Iran-backed group's ballistic missile fired at Riyadh at dawn.  The group has already hit a Saudi pipeline, disrupting oil distribution.  That coupled with the worldwide shortage of refining capacity has driven up the price of gasoline and diesel. Three observations:

First, high fuel costs could impact upcoming midterm election.  The Economist now gives Democrats a 93% chance (up from 77% in July) of flipping the U.S. House and a

59% (up from 45% in July) of taking the Senate.  The increases for the Ds are primarily driven by higher prices for gasoline and food.  If Trump can engineer a deal with Iran and stabilize the area, most likely the price of fuel will quickly come down, which could create a shift back to the GOP. 

Second, the lack of refinery capacity is the real issue.  Crude oil doesn’t become gasoline on its own — it has to be refined, and the U.S. has been quietly losing refining capacity for years. The U.S. has 620,000 barrels per day less refinery capacity than it had in 2019.

That capacity is not coming back immediately and consumers pay the price for that capacity shortage directly at the pump.  Couple that with government environmental regulations and the Renewal Fuel Standard mandate, oil companies aren't willing to invest in new domestic refineries.  At a recent White House meeting, oil executives discussed the capacity issues and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The RFS requires oil refiners and importers to blend 15.5% for total renewable fuel and 6.42% for advanced biofuels in 2026.  The hickory nuts (oil field jargon for veteran) told Trump the blending targets are unattainable.  Whether the targets are relaxed remains to be seen.

Third, all politics are local.  Voter behavior and winning elections depend on how well a candidate addresses issues important to those voters.  Most of the time, national issues are not in the decision tree, with the exception of economic issues.  People vote based on how the Party in power has performed in keeping prices and taxes down.  Trump and the GOP led Congress did lower taxes through the 'Big Beautiful Bill," but the price of food and fuel have increased vs. two years ago.  While those high prices will likely come down, it may not be before the midterms.

It may look bleak for GOP in the midterms, but things can quickly change.  As Crown prosecutor Gérard de Ville fort said in The Count of Monte Cristo: “On what slender threads do life and fortune hang…!”

Voter Engagement is more effective ONE AT A TIME!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MASS COMMUNICATING!

by Steve Fair

 

Last week, the Republican National Committee held a Midterm convention in Dallas.  Unlike the quadrennial nominating convention where the president and vice president nominees are selected, no official GOP Party business was conducted.  A Midterm convention for Republicans is nothing more than political theatre. 

The Democrats have held three midterm conventions- in 1974, 1978, and 1982.  They used the midterm conventions to debate Party rules and their platform.  The GOP convention in Dallas was an attempt by President Trump to 'get the vote out' for the upcoming November midterms.  Three observations:

First, the Republican Party is fractured.  The Grand Ole Party has deep internal strife between the MAGA base and the non-MAGA minority.  Some Republicans disagree with President Trump's military action in Iran, his policy on tariffs, and immigration and that disagreement is considered treason by the MAGA crowd.  The MAGA crowd requires complete and mandatory agreement with the president's actions.  They insult and put down anyone who presents a critical assessment of Trump's deeds, labeling them RINOS (Republicans in Name Only).  That presents a problem when you need RINOS to win.  If Republicans continue to work against each other instead of together, expect the GOP to lose big in November.

Second, Trump appealed primarily to his base.  "Pretend that I'm on the ballot.  Just one more time," the president exhorted the Dallas crowd.  While the president is term limited and isn't on the midterm ballot, his policies clearly are.    According to the Economist, Trump's approval rating among college-educated Americans has fallen sharply in recent weeks- from 34% to less than 30%.  Those are usually Republican voters, so pretending Trump is on the ballot with that demographic is probably not a sound campaign strategy. 

Third, Trump's coattails could turn out to be a drag.  Candidates running in down ticket races often benefit or are harmed by those at the top of the ticket.  Nationally, that may not be the case this year.  Here in conservative Oklahoma, candidates latch themselves to Trump like a horse to a buggy.  Candidate's mailers, TV ads and social media proclaim how much more Trump they are than their opponent.  But that may not work even in the Sooner state in a general election when the voters tend to not as conservative.  Those pesky moderate Rs might not vote for a Democrat, but they a race blank. 

Republican candidates in Oklahoma are expected to cruise to victory in November, but that is likely not the case nationwide.  In many states congressional races are considered toss-ups and many political prognosticators are predicting a bloodbath for Republicans in November. 

No one fires up their base like Donald Trump, but he is going to need more than just the base to retain the U.S. House.  He needs the RINOs, Americans for No Prosperity, Globalists Club for No Group and many other voter groups he has insulted to triumph in November. 

The RNC would have been better served spending their money on local get out the vote efforts in close congressional district races than staging a 3-day rally preaching to the choir. 

But the president calls the shots at the Republican National Committee and Trump subscribes to Pappy O'Daniel's philosophy: "We ain't one-at-a-timin' here. We're MASS communicating!"  Big rallies and lots of boring speeches may impress those already planning to vote Red in November, but swing voters are better reached one-at-a-timing.

WORKERS ARE BACKBONE OF AMERICA!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

MADE IN AMERICA!

by Steve Fair

 

Most people only see Labor Day as a day off work and the unofficial end of Summer, but the holiday's origin is more significant.  The first Labor Day celebration took place in New York City in 1882.  More than 10,000 workers took unpaid time off to join the protest for better working conditions. 

The New York Tribune reported, "The windows and roofs and even the lamp posts and awning frames were occupied by persons anxious to get a good view of the first parade in New York of workingmen of all trades united in one organization."  Labor Day became a national holiday in 1894.  Some thoughts about Oklahoma and Labor Day:

Oklahoma's official state motto is "Labor Omnia Vincit" (Latin for "Labor Conquers All").  The motto reflects the strong political influence of organized labor groups during the creation of the state's constitution in 1907.

Well before Oklahoma was the 'reddest state in the U.S.," the Sooner state was a hotbed for powerful trade unionism, and the strongest regional Socialist movement in United States history.  Only Wisconsin had a larger state caucus of elected socialists. 

Oklahoma's organized labor roots remained influential for nearly a century.  The state didn't officially become a right-to-work state until 2001, when 54% of voters passed State Question #695 to make it illegal to require union membership or the payment of union dues as a condition of employment.  Three observations regarding Labor Day:

First, the number of working men is declining.  According to a recent Department of Labor survey, male workforce participation has dropped significantly from a peak of 86.4% in 1950 to 66.8% last year.  Roughly 6.8 million men ages 25-34 aren't even looking for work.  Over half of these non-working prime-age men cite physical health issues, serious illness, or disabilities as the main reason they aren't working.  

Linkenln, the world’s largest online professional network, claims the reason men are not working is not a declining work ethic, but the mismatch between worker expectations of fair treatment and the realities of modern corporate structures. 

President Grant said, "Labor disgraces no man; unfortunately, you occasionally find men who disgrace labor."  In other words, some people just will not work.

Second, U.S. productivity is up.  According to the Department of Labor, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased +1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026.  In the manufacturing sector, the increase was +2.4%.  The obvious benefactors of increased productivity are business owners, but if those efficiencies are passed on to employees and consumers, all profit.  If they aren't then productivity will suffer and those profits will dissipate. 

Third, everyone works for themself.  Employees trade their time, skills and labor for a paycheck, career advancement or personal growth.  If an employer is a short sighted, skin flint miser cheapskate tightwad, they have the choice to look for someone who will pay them for their services.  Working for an employer is not the priesthood.  It is a transactional business contract, not a spiritual calling or a total life devotion.  Employers who mistreat their most precious resource- their workers- will not prosper.

American workers are the backbone of the United States.  They have built the highest standard of living in the world.  Everyone benefits when they are taken care of.  For years, U.S. companies sought out the cheapest labor and many manufacturers moved them production overseas.  The Trump administration has done an excellent job of getting many companies to return to domestic production.  American workers, consumers and business owners need to recognize the strategic advantages in national security having products Made in America provides.