WOULD HILLARY FIRE UP THE GOP?

Some Republican activists are rooting for Senator Hillary Clinton- D, NY to win the Democratic nomination for President. Why? Because they believe she is such a polarizing figure that she would be the easiest to beat in the general election. Republicans were in Indianapolis this weekend for the biennial Midwest Republican Leadership Conference. The host county chair- Howard County (Ind.) GOP Chair Craig Dunn got excited when asked if Hillary being the nominee would improve Republican chances of retaining the White House. "Absolutely, absolutely!" he exclaimed animatedly, grinning widely. "We’ve never elected a president of the United States who started off with 45 percent unfavorable ratings!"

It is true that people either love or hate Hillary. There are few who are in the middle. But Hillary winning the nomination is not the key to the Republicans winning the White House in 2008. That responsibility falls to the Republicans. Republicans have to get out the vote and energize the conservative base to win elections. In 2006, when the GOP lost control of both chambers of Congress, it was because Congressional Republicans failed to act like Republicans. They were not conservative fiscally and looked and acted like Democrats. The conservative base-disgusted with the lack of guts and ethics in Congressional Repubs stayed home. If Democrats honestly believe they won last November because of a huge ideology swing in America, they are sadly mistaken. That loss was self-inflicted.

The Dems nominating Hillary will not sweep whatever Republican wins the nomination into the White House. There are some interesting other dynamics in play this year. When you consider for the first time in many years, Democratic candidates for President are raising more money than Republican candidates, that indicates Democrats are already energized and expect to win the White House.

In the second quarter of the year before each of the past three presidential elections, the total amounts raised were $34.1 million (1995), $55.3 million (1999) and $65.9 million (2003). But this year, we have second quarter totals for the top three candidates in each party. Those six candidates alone raised $110.7 million. And Hillary and Obama are the candidates leading the money race.

Ed Goeas is President the Tarrance Group, a nationally known polling organization. Ed went to Cameron University in the ‘70s. We took several courses together. He says, "As Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee, Republican intensity will simultaneously spike." I agree with Ed that Hillary winning the nomination would "fire up the troops," but unless the GOP nominee energizes the base, she will be President. You might remember that New York Republicans were excited when Clinton won the Democratic nomination for Senate because they thought she would be easy to beat in the blue state. She proved to be an able campaigner, connected with the voters and won easily in a year when Republicans nationally did well. You can’t underestimate the Clintons when it comes to politics. They are aggressive, organized, and engaging. If Republicans hope to avoid a replay of ’06 in ‘08, they will do three things.

First, we must nominate a principled candidate for President. There is way too much talk in GOP circles about "who can win the general election." Everyone has suddenly become an expert on demographics, politics, and voter trends. If we don’t nominate a principled candidate, the conservative base will not turn out and Hillary will be President.

Second, we must have a candidate that addresses the hard issues. Candidates that dance around the tough issues and "stick to the script" will not fire up the troops. Romney has proven to be incapable of handling questions about his religion or his position on abortion without losing it. If we have a candidate that avoids dealing with the hard issues, Hillary will be President.

Third, we must have a candidate that embraces the grassroots. When Barry Goldwater won the GOP nomination in 1964, his battle cry was "A Choice, not an Echo." Goldwater won the nod by getting the activists across the country fired up. His strategy worked well enough to win the nomination, but he abandoned it in the general and got beat like a drum. If we have a candidate that doesn’t recognize and embrace the grassroots, Hillary will be President.

I agree with Rove that Hillary is the odds on favorite to be the Dems nominee, but I disagree with my fellow county chair that she can’t win the general election. Rewind back to 1992 when her then little known husband knocked off an incumbent President. The Clintons are political animals that understand what must be done to win and are committed to doing whatever is necessary to win. Thus far, the crop of Repubs in the race have not shown the level of commitment or risk taking necessary to beat her. Hopefully, a candidate will emerge from the pack that will excite the conservatives- and it won’t be Hillary.