MOST VOTERS HAVE LITTLE IDEA OF HOW A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE IS SELECTED!

Weekly Opinion Editorial 

WALK IN THE RAIN!

by Steve Fair

 

     In an op/ed in Politico last week, Jeff Greenfield addressed the Republican and Democratic Party presidential nomination process.  Greenfield writes the Trump campaign has an under-appreciated advantage in understanding the GOP nominating process vs. other potential candidates, because they have been through it before. 

     Most registered voters have little idea how a Party selects the nominee.   The two major Parties do not do it the same way.  Democrats require delegates to their national nominating convention be proportionally allocated in each state.  Republicans leave the decision on how delegates are selected up to each state.   

     Some states, including Oklahoma, hold a presidential preference primary.  In Oklahoma, if a candidate receives 50% of the vote in the primary, all the state’s delegates are pledged to that candidate.  If no candidate reaches the 50% threshold, all candidates who receive 15% or more of the vote get delegates.    Other states use a caucus or a state convention to select national delegates. 

     In 2020, Oklahoma had 43 delegates to the 2020 convention.  15 of those delegates were selected at Congressional District level (5 districts x 3 delegates each).  25 were selected at the state GOP convention.  3 were automatic delegates as elected members of the Republican National Committee (State Chair/National Committeeman & Committeewoman). 

     Oklahoma Republican Party rules and Oklahoma State law bind convention delegates to vote for who they are pledged to for as long as that candidate remains in the race.  Every delegate must sign an affidavit before they attend the national convention.  Three points about the process:

     First, Trump does have an advantage in the nomination process.  Knowledge of how the primary system works is crucial.  Early in 2016, the Trump team was clueless about the delegate selection rules.  They even dared to claim the system was rigged- all while they were winning.  Knowing the quirky rules, by state, is fundamental to being effective in a primary campaign.  Ignorance of how the game is played is no excuse- especially for well-organized candidates.

     Second, expect the RNC and some states to alter/change/amend the rules.  It happens every cycle.  A state changes their delegate selection process to a caucus system or a presidential preference primary or move up or back the date of their primary. 

     The RNC attempts to ‘manage’ the process to avoid a brokered convention by dictating which states can go first in the primary order.  They try to impose penalties (not sitting their delegates) on states that don’t comply.  Each state wants more influence in the nomination process.    

     In 2015, former RNC members presented a rotating system that would have rewarded Red states like Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah, by allowing those states to hold their primaries first.  It would have given more conservative states a greater influence in the nominating process.  That proposal was soundly defeated.  The RNC continues to allow Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida to hold early races, in spite of the fact they are not as conservative as the previously mentioned trio of states.  Don’t expect the RNC to change the primary order in 2024.

     Third, Oklahoma voters cast their presidential primary vote for an unknown representative. That representative is a political activist who will represent them at the GOP national convention.  They will be legally bound to vote the way the district or state voted.  They will spend their own money and time to travel to the convention.  They will be criticized by some for sticking to their word and doing what they said they would do.  Why would anyone do that?  Because they love their Party, their state and their country?  Those fellow citizens should be applauded, not abhorred.  They should be cheered, not discouraged.  Without their dedication, devotion, and commitment, the process would be havoc and anarchy.     

     America was founded on the principle of the government deriving power from the consent of the governed.  Until the majority of the governed deposit sustained ownership in government, the unengaged and uninformed will show no appreciation for political activists and will detest elected officials.  Roger Miller said, “Some people walk in the rain- others just get wet.”

“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

GROUNDHOG DAY!

by Steve Fair

     On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump announced he was running for the Republican nomination in 2024.  “In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States,” he told the crowd gathered at Mar-a-Lago. “America’s comeback starts now,!” Trump proclaimed. 

     Some of Trump’s family isn’t on board like they were in his previous two campaigns.  Ivanka Trump Kushner, the ex-president’s daughter and former advisor, did not attend the announcement and issued a statement after the declaration of her father.  “While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena,” Trump Kushner said.  Her husband, Jared Kushner, a former senior advisor to the president, did attend the announcement, as did sons Eric and Barron, but Donald Trump Jr. was not in attendance.

     Reaction to Trump’s announcement was mixed from Congressional Republicans.  Four term Congresswoman Rep. Elise Stefanik, (R-NY), endorsed Trump, calling him the most popular Republican in America, who has a proven record of conservative governance.  Three term Congressman Rep. Andy Biggs, (R-AZ), who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Kevin McCarthy, (R-CA) for Speaker earlier this week said Trump was the leader of the Republican Party.  Former White House physician, Texas Congressman Ronny Jackson, (R,TX), said he was 100% behind Trump. 

     Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney(who served 15 months in the job) said Trump was the only Republican who could lose in 2024 and it would be a mistake to nominate him.  Outgoing Maryland Governor Larry Hogan agreed.  Sen. Richard Burr, (R-NC), who is retiring after 28 years in Congress, said he could care less about Trump’s announcement.  It is not unheard of for an ex-president to covet moving back to the White House. 

     Three ex-presidents in American history have come back and ran for the job.  President Ulysses S. Grant served two terms as POTUS from 1869-1877, but declined to run for a third term.  He changed his mind in 1880 and ran for the Republican nomination, but lost to James Garfield on the 36^th ballot. 

     After losing to FDR, President Herbert Hoover ran for the GOP nomination in 1936 and 1940, but failed to win the Party’s nod. 

     Three other former presidents tried to get their old job back by running as third-Party candidates. Martin Van Buren ran eight years after he was defeated and came in third and got no electoral votes.   Millard Fillmore created the Know Nothing Party’s nomination in 1852,  and finished third with 21% of the popular vote and got eight electoral votes.  Could it have been the Party’s name?

      Perhaps the best-known ex-president to try and win the Oval Office job back is President Teddy Roosevelt.  After serving seven years, Roosevelt chose to not run for reelection.  He handpicked Secretary of War William Howard Taft as his successor, but quickly regretted the decision.  Roosevelt ran against Taft for the Republican nomination in 1912, but narrowly lost.  Teddy then created the Bull Moose Party.  He got 27.4% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes.  Taft got 23.2% of the popular vote, but only 8 electoral votes.  Taking advantage of the Republicans splitting the vote, Woodrow Wilson won 435 electoral votes with just 41% of the popular vote. 

     President Grover Cleveland is the only former president who has come back after being defeated for reelection to win a second nonconsecutive term.  Cleveland was the 22^nd and the 24^th president with Benjamin Harrison the 23^rd.  Cleveland, the former governor of New York, beat Harrison in the rematch in 1892.    

     Will Donald Trump be successful and serve a second nonconsecutive term like Grover Cleveland?  Will history repeat itself and Trump win a rematch against Joe Biden like Cleveland did against Harrison?  Will Trump be like Grant and Hoover and fail to get the GOP Party nomination?  If he lost the nomination, would he follow Teddy Roosevelt’s example and create a third-Party?  It remains to be seen how it plays out, but one thing is certain: 2024 is taking shape to be an eventful election.

     American philosopher George Santayana famously said, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” 

     Phil Connors in Groundhog Day put it in more contemporary terms: “I wake up everyday, right here in Punxsutawney, and it’s always February 2^nd, and there’s nothing I can do about it.”  That’s how most Americans feel about politics and their government.

Celebrity Republicans clearly didn’t convince voters of their competence!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

CELEBRITY REPUBLICANS!

by Steve Fair

     Last Tuesday’s elections didn’t turn out like most political pundits/sages expected.  Instead of a red wave, it was more like a calm pink tide.  Republicans appear to have gained enough seats to take over the U.S. House, but the U.S. Senate will remain under Democrat control.  It appears the Democrat has won in the Arizona governor’s race, so all in all it wasn’t a strong night for Republicans.  Three observations:

     First, Parties don’t win or lose elections, candidates do.  Republican elected officials and so-called political experts recruited, equipped and funded bad candidates.  The Senate GOP candidate in Pennsylvania was Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Turkish Muslim, who lives in New Jersey.  A regular on Oprah Winfrey’s show, Oz was recruited because he had name recognition and Republicans thought Oz would appeal to ‘swing’ voters.  His opponent was the sitting Lt. Governor in Pennsylvania who had a stroke and struggled through a debate.  They were running to replace Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican. Oz had little appeal to Pennamites in the larger metropolitan areas and Democrats picked up the seat.  Oz may know medicine and television, but in politics, he was a political novice.   

     Republicans ran Kari Lake for governor in Arizona.  Lake was a Phoenix TV news anchor who had high name recognition.  Her Democrat opponent was Katie Hobbs, the sitting Secretary of State in Arizona. It appears Lake lost in a very close race.  In Georgia, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate was Herschel Walker, who was a Heisman Trophy winner while at the University of Georgia and a well-known professional athletic.  Walker was recruited because everybody in Georgia knows who he is.  Walker hasn’t lost yet, but he trails his Democratic opponent as they move to a December 6^th runoff.     

     None of the three GOP candidates mentioned have held elective office before.  All three were unconventional, out of the ordinary, outsider candidates.  The three were aggrandized as being conservative outsiders in the mold of former President Donald Trump. Yet voters didn’t seem to care about their notoriety or celebrity status.  They chose the more conventional candidates.  Perhaps the days of PT Barnum ‘now in the center ring’ politics has run its course.

     Second, the grand old Party missed a great old probability.  Inflation is at a 40 year high.  The economy is in the tank. Exit polling showed the economy/inflation was the number one issue with over 50% of voters.   Odds were in Republican’s favor.  Democrat’s failed economy policy is hurting the average family.  Even Democrat pollsters projected the GOP would win big on Tuesday, yet Republicans failed to capitalize on the number one issue.  They instead ran candidates based on personality and not policy. 

     Third, Oklahoma and Florida were the two bright red spots.  Oklahoma voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Republicans, which is not surprising.  Republicans easily won their races in the Sooner state, in spite of the fact millions were spent in dark money ads attacking Governor Stitt and Ryan Walters. 

     Florida is another story. The sunshine state reelected Governor Ron DeSantis to a second term 60% to 40%.  DeSantis won Miami Dade county, a traditionally Democrat county, by 10 points- the first time a Republican has won it in over twenty years.    Republicans in Florida won all statewide races and now have super majorities in both the state House and Senate (Oklahoma did it in 2014).  That gives DeSantis a launching pad for a 2024 presidential run.  Florida is a key swing state. 

     The lesson from Tuesday is candidates win or lose elections- not Parties.  Ill prepared, amateur, greenhorn candidates have little appeal to the knowledgeable voter- and they rarely fool the uniformed one.  Running a candidate with little substance so an extra chair is needed at the caucus meeting is a foolhardy strategy.  A notable luminary on the ballot is no different than the unknown career politician.  Both must convince the voter they are competent to do the job.  Celebrity Republicans clearly didn’t do that on Tuesday.

 

TUESDAY'S VOTE IS TEMPORAL!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

CAN’T CATCH A BREAK!

by Steve Fair

 

     On Tuesday November 8^th, America votes.  As of this writing, Republicans are expected to win enough seats to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.  Control of the U.S. Senate hinges on three very close races.  Results in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia will determine control of the upper chamber.   Polling indicates races too close to call, but pollsters have been wrong.  Some believe the state of the economy (record inflation, supply chain issues) will result in a Red Wave with Republicans taking control of both chambers, rendering President Biden’s next two years politically impotent. 

     In the Sooner state, record amounts of money have been spent on the governor’s race.  Dark money groups have spent millions attacking Governor Stitt.  The lack of transparency and disclosure of who funds the obnoxious, outrageous ads should concern everyone, matter their Party affiliation.  The anonymity allows rich donors to remain undisclosed to the public, while spending millions to influence and buy an election. 

     Federal courts have ruled Americans have a right to use their money to fund campaigns pushing their values and views.  They rule it is a freedom of speech issue. But the public should demand to know who is funding the campaigns.  Until the laws are changed requiring exposure, the public should pay no attention to any dark money ad campaign.  If dark money lurid, dramatic ads were ignored and became ineffective, donors would stop funding them. Three observations about the midterms: 

      First, the best candidate doesn’t always win.  The vast majority of voters are woefully ignorant of issues and candidate’s qualifications and experience, and often base their vote on which candidate has the best marketing plan.  Politics doesn’t require truth in labeling, so lying is an accepted and encouraged practice.  Candidates who do not slander, misrepresent or distort their opponent are considered weak and frail.  Candidates who win because they exaggerated their opponent’s weaknesses and inflated their superiority may win, but they don’t magically transform into gracious, civil, responsive elected officials.  The character and ethics with which they ran their campaign follow them into office.

     Second, America needs resolute leaders.  Hopefully the victors this week are determined, uncompromising and consistent in their convictions.  They should recognize only God knows everything and they should be humbled they were triumphant.  They should listen to their constituents.  They should seek wise counsel from a wide variety of counselors, not just those who funded their campaign.  Sadly, many politicos have become nothing more than puppets for a special interest group that funded their campaign.

      Third, Tuesday’s elections are temporal.  That doesn’t mean they aren’t important, but the space/time continual is not going to be destroyed no matter the outcome.  Christian believers should recognize that God is in control and He sets up authorities as He sees fit.  Winners and losers on Tuesday should recognize that as well.  If more professing believers in elective office governed using the two great commandments as their guide (love God/love neighbor), perhaps God would show mercy on America. 

     Tuesday will not end the discussion of politics.  The 2024 president race will begin immediately after the polls close.  Aspirants in both Parties will begin to test the waters and put together their ‘exploratory committees.’  Americans will not catch a break.  The electioneering will continue! 

Legislators don’t fund anything- taxpayers fund everything.

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

NO PUBLIC MONEY

by Steve Fair

     Public money is defined as money that has been collected by government from citizens, usually through taxation.  During a recent TV interview, a two term GOP Oklahoma state legislator, running for re-election, proudly proclaimed he would protect public money.  He went on to say that ‘we’(assuming he meant the legislature) funded this program and that program.  That would have been a sight to below- 149 legislators pulling out their personal checkbooks to fund state government.  That, of course, is absurd and preposterous, but sadly most voters don’t see the error in his statement.  Three observations:

     First, there is no public money.  Government doesn’t generate any money, it consumes.  The private sector generates money.  The so-called public money is taxpayer money.  It doesn’t cease to belong to the taxpayer once the government collects it.  It is still taxpayer money.  It isn’t laundered like drug money and can be used however government is inclined.  When naïve, inexperienced, airheaded elected officials arrogantly proclaim they are funding anything, they expose their stupidity.  Legislators don’t fund anything- taxpayers fund everything. 

     The late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said, “The state has no source of money, other than the money people earn themselves.  If the state wishes to spend more, it can only do so by borrowing your savings, or by taxing you more.  And it’s no good thinking that someone else will pay.  That someone else is you.  There is no such thing as public money.  There is only taxpayers’ money.”

     Second, taxpayers should pay attention to how their money is being spent.  The majority of taxpayers view their taxes as a necessary evil.  Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. said, “Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society.”  The problem is most taxpayers don’t watch how their money is spent after it has been collected.  The money doesn’t stop being their money once the government has collected it.  It is the responsibility of the taxpayer to make sure that money is being spent in a proper manner.  The reason there is so much government waste, fraud and corruption is because taxpayers take so little equity in their money.  If more citizens required elected officials, at all levels, to provide a detailed accounting of where their money was being spent, perhaps America’s out of control government spending could be halted. 

     Third, no publicly funded entity is ‘entitled’ to taxpayer money- they should earn it.  When secondary education, public employees, or state agencies haughtily declare they are entitled to ‘public’ money, without accountability, they are poking their finger in the taxpayer’s eye.  Oklahoma should require zero based budgeting, a system that requires that every penny appropriated be justified.  The current system of just bumping up last year’s allocation doesn’t identified waste, and rewards agencies that cheat. 

     No doubt the legislator knows where the government gets their revenue.  No doubt he knows he did not personally fund anything, but words and terminology matter.  The mindset tax dollars cease to be ours once collected flies in the face of self-government.   Anyone who believes otherwise is a socialist.  Pay attention to how your money is being spent.

AMERICANS ARE INFURIATED!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

ANGER IS MOTIVATOR!

by Steve Fair

 

     One thing both Republicans and Democrats can agree on- the other Party’s stance on issues, if left unchecked, will destroy America.  In a recent NBC News (a liberal leaning organization) poll, 80% of those polled believed the other side is a precarious threat to democracy.  America is more polarized and divided than ever before and it boils down to one thing- how they view the U.S. Constitution.  Three observations:

     First, liberals hate the Constitution.  They believe the 2nd amendment is about duck hunting and the Electoral College too complex.  They advocate direct election of the president, ignoring state rights.  They believe the Constitution is broken and should not be reclaimed or amended, but discarded.

     In an August New York Times op/ed, two liberal law professors-Ryan Doerfler (Harvard) and Samuel Moyn(Yale)- wrote: A politics of the American future like this would make clear our ability to engage in the constant reinvention of our society under our own power, without the illusion that the past stands in the way. To liberals, the Constitution is the past and cannot be applied to today’s complicated problems.  According to liberals, America should be constantly ‘reinventing’ itself with no rules as a guide.

      President Abraham Lincoln said, “We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”

     Second, the Constitution exists to limit the power of government and to insure our freedom.  It codifies the freedoms of speech, association, assembly, press religion, equal protection under the law, the right to due process and the right to privacy.  It’s not just a yellowing old document under glass at the National Archives.  It is what keeps government in check and insures our individual freedoms.  Without it, America isn’t America. Liberals want America to become more like Europe, with government being more involved in citizen’s lives. 

     Third, public schools are required by law to teach about the Constitution each year.  Most Americans don’t know that.  In 2004, Congress passed a law that requires schools receiving federal funding to provide education on the history of the Constitution each Constitution Day.  The bill was introduced by the late Senator Robert Byrd, (D-WV)Sadly, most schools don’t offer a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Constitution.  Rick Green has a video series titled, ‘Constitution Alive,’ that is available online that provides an excellent overview of the Constitution.   Every American citizen should know what the founding document says. 

     The October NBC News poll found Americans are angry.  Liberals are angry at the Supreme Court because they disagreed with the Roe vs. Wade reversal.  Conservatives are angry because Joe Biden is president.  Both are angry about the economy.  But anger or zeal without knowledge or resolve accomplishes little.  The outcome of the midterm elections in November will come down to which side is enraged the most.

     

OKLAHOMANS NEED A GOVERNOR WHO WILL REPRESENT ALL CITIZENS!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

THE STATE OF SEQUOYAH!

by Steve Fair

 

     Most Oklahomans know the Five Civilized Tribes were relocated from the southeast U.S. by the federal government to Indian Territory in the 1830-40s.  Those five tribes are the Cherokee, Chickasaw, Creek, Choctaw and Seminole.  In 1851, Congress passed the Indian Appropriations Act, which created the reservation system and provided funds to move Indians onto farming reservations.  The Dawes Act of 1887 granted private land ownership to tribal members, but the net result was tribal member’s land being reduced by one half.   

     In 1906, Congress passed the Oklahoma Enabling Act, whose stated intent was to disestablish the afore mentioned reservations of the five tribes.  The action was required by Congress so Indian Territory and Oklahoma Territory could merge and be admitted to the union in 1907.  The 2020 McGirt decision ruled the reservations were never disestablished and are still intact.  That decision has created a legal quagmire and could ultimately spilt the Sooner state in two. 

     This week, the five tribes endorsed Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister for governor.  Hofmeister is the Democrat Party nominee.  She was elected twice to her current post as a registered Republican, but changed political affiliation to run for governor.  Some recent polls show the race close between her and GOP nominee, Governor Kevin Stitt, an enrolled member of the Cherokee tribe.  The only reason the race is competitive is the monies the tribes are pumping into Hofmeister’s campaign.  Three observations:

     First, the tribe’s issue with Kevin Stitt is about money.  In 2004, Oklahoma voters approved State Question #712 by a 60-40% margin.  712 enacted a Tribal Gaming Compact allowing tribes to operate slot machines and card games.  The 15-year compact, negotiated by former Governor Brad Henry and then State Treasurer Scott Meacham, required 6-13% of the money casinos take in go to the state.  88% of the amount is earmarked for education.     

     The compact was set to expire in 2020.  After he took office, Stitt proposed the tribes give the state a higher take than the original agreement, but the tribes balked.  The tribes claimed the original compact rolled over and they are under no obligation to renegotiate.  In 17 years, the state’s tribal gaming industry  has grown to over 150 casinos.  Hofmeister agrees with the tribes and has no problem with their sweetheart deal.  The tribes want a puppet in the governor’s mansion, not a partner.  They are happy with the current spilt because after all- the house always wins.

     Second, the tribe’s formal endorsement will not likely impact the election.  Tribal membership in Oklahoma is less than 14% of the population and Native Americans have a history of not voting.  In a study by Steven Doherty, he found they were 51% less likely to vote than other races.  The tribes spend a lot of money on politics.  They fund campaigns for candidates that will promote their agenda (like Hofmeister).  They employ an impressive lobbying apparatus at the State Capitol.  The public endorsement, while impressive optically, is doubtful to influence their rank-and-file tribal membership.

     Third, Hofmeister wants to be governor of the State of Sequoyah.  Hofmeister said if she was elected, she would just an equal participant at the negotiating table with the tribes, not the head.  Oklahomans don’t need a governor who doesn’t lead and believes representing 14% of Oklahomans is justifiable. 

     In 1905, the State of Sequoyah was proposed to Congress.  It would have composed the eastern part of the state- about 44% of the land mass of Oklahoma.  A Constitutional Convention met in Muskogee.  A vote was taken in Indian Territory.  The constitution was approved by a 6 to 1 majority.  President Teddy Roosevelt opposed admitting two states.  The Rough Rider proposed combining the two territories into one state, gaining widespread support in Congress.  The State of Sequoyah evaporated and the State of Oklahoma was born.  With the McGirt decision and the recent attitude/endorsement of the five tribes, it appears the State of Sequoyah has been resurrected.