THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS - HR1 REQUIRES SCRUTINY!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

BEAUTY OR BEAST?

by Steve Fair

     President Trump’s ‘one big beautiful bill’ (HR1) passed the Republican controlled U.S. House last week by one vote (215-214), with five Republican House members voting no (2), present (1) or not voting at all (2).  It now heads to the Senate, where it faces some opposition.  The text of HR1 is available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text for those interested in the details.

     HR1 makes permanent the 2017 Trump tax cuts.  It cuts taxes by an additional $1,300 for a family of four and removes the tax on tips and overtime pay.  HR1 allows an American family to fully deduct auto loan interest for American-made cars. It also increases the standard deduction by $2,000 for every American family.  It increases the Child Care tax deduction.

     But the 1,116-page bill does not remove tax on Social Security, as has been wrongly reported.  Social Security can’t be changed through a budget reconciliation process.  HR1 does contain a provision where people over age 65 could deduct an additional $4,000 from their taxes if they make less than $75,000 or $150,000 filing jointly.  Three observations about HR1:

      First, HR1 will get changed in the Senate.  Senator Ron Johnson, (R-WI) and other Republicans, have criticized the spending in the bill.  Johnson wants deeper cuts, calling for government agencies to go back to pre-COVID spending levels.  “This is the weekend we honor the service and sacrifice of the finest among us.  I don’t they served in sacrifice to leave our children completely mortgaged,” Johnson said on CNN Sunday.  Johnson, a fiscal hawk, exhorted his fellow senators to be ‘responsible’ and reminded them the first goal of a budget reconciliation process should be to reduce the deficit. 

     HR1 does cut Medicaid (not Medicare) funding by up to $1 trillion and requires more stringent provider screening requirements.  A significant amount of taxpayer dollars are spent providing medical care for illegal immigrants and HR1 seeks to stop that expenditure.

     The Congression Budget Office (CBO) estimates HR1 will increase the budget deficit by $3.8 trillion next year.  Speaker Mike Johnson, (R-LA) says those estimates are inflated and the CBO did not factor in the economic growth HR1 will create.  One thing is certain- HR1 likely faces modification before it gets through the Senate.

     Second, HR1’s success hinges on U.S. economic growth. The House Ways and Means committee estimates HR1 will increase America’s GDP an average of $850 billion annually over the next decade.  One reason for the projected growth is the extension of key Trump economic tax policies for small businesses the Biden administration had rescinded.  Reduction of regulations on energy productivity is expected to lower energy costs and increase consumption.  Whether the tenets of HR1 will result in the projected growth the Trump administration expects remains to be seen.

     Third, the devil is in the details.  Simple things can often become complicated and problematic.   Overlooked details can be the source of failure.  In a bill with over 1,100 pages, specifics are crucial for success.  Unintended consequences are the axiom/motto of Congress.  While HR1 has some excellent provisions, it’s the undetected fishhooks that snag taxpayers. 

     HR1 includes measures consistent with ‘supply-side economics,’ aka Reaganomics.  With tax cuts, incentives encouraging work and investment and focus on supply, HR1 is similar to the approach President Reagan took to combat record inflation in the early 1980s.  It worked, despite critics who said it helped the wealthy in the U.S. the most.  If HR1 doesn’t work, the beautiful bill will be the beast.

AVOID PANDERING, OUTRAGED, CO-OPING, & SELF-VICTIMIZATING CANDIDATES!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

UNEMOTIONAL!

by Steve Fair

     Politicians use a variety of tactics to reach voters.  Using time honored marketing strategy, candidates target their audience, work to create a demand for their message and hone delivery of the same.  Modern technology has provided more personal information on voters.  Using micro-marketing, candidates now focus on a specific narrow group of voters and tailor their message to the needs and preferences of this small, defined audience.  The goal is to develop a loyal following among voters who vote and ignore those that don’t.  The 2026 statewide campaigns have started.  Listed below are four tools candidates commonly use to sway voters:

     Pandering.  Pandering is when a candidate will do or say what voters want to hear.  Panderers are disingenuous and insincere.  They lack straightforwardness and openness and are often hiding an agenda or motive.  Panderers avoid confrontation.  They are agreeable and likeable, but often lack the courage to stand alone.  There are honest panderers, but most are not.

     Outrage.  Politicos often show an extremely strong reaction of anger, shock or indignation over an issue to ‘fire up’ their base.  They cloak their clumsiness and incompetence in outrage.  They use passion and pain to further their cause.  Voters are distracted from elected official’s voting records and policy positions by indignation.  They actually may be a victim, but often they are only positioning.

     Co-opting.  Politicians often do ‘shout outs’ to influential people in their audience, in the hope the person recognized will provide them with credibility.  That is a form of co-opting.  Endorsements are also a form of co-opting.  Co-opting is not dishonest, but it a form of leeching.  They cling to someone for personal gain. 

     Self-victimization.  Politicos often play the victim.  They manipulate voters by claiming they are a target or victim of nefarious acts or abuse.  Self-victims tend to exaggerate or fabricate their own victimhood.  It is an effective tactic.  People love the underdog.  They come to the defense of the persecuted.   

      Informed voters must recognize politicians are ‘selling’ a message during a campaign.  It may or may not be a quality message or one the voter wants.  It’s the voter’s job to cut through the rhetoric.    Discerning the difference between hyperbole and truth can be challenging for voters.   Truth is often boring and lacks the pizzazz, excitement, and passion of a well-crafted hype campaign.  But it’s the truth and the truth will set you free. 

     Here are some suggestions for voters as they vet candidates in the coming year:  (1) Don’t rely on a single source for information.  Seek out reputable outlets to get information.  (2) Be wary of social media.  Verify claims before accepting them as true.  (3) Research candidate’s positions and voting records.  (4) Be aware you have your own biases.  Everyone is bias.  Our values and background influence how information is interpreted.  (5) Understand the issues.  Don’t let elected officials or candidates define the narrative.  (6) Recognize it is a marathon, not a sprint.  The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.  People who make a difference stay hooked up.

     As campaigns start earlier and well heeled (rich) candidates craft pandering, co-opting messages, discerning the best choice becomes harder for voters- but not impossible.  It requires a sober, introspective, thoughtful approach that removes the emotion from decision making.       

Traditional prison reform hasn't yielded lasting positive change!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

Transformation, not Reformation!

by Steve Fair

     On May 7^th, thirty men graduated from Oklahoma Baptist University (OBU) with Bachelor of Arts degrees in Christian Studies.  It was a historic moment because these 30 men are incarcerated at Lexington Correctional Center.  They are serving time.  They have labored for four years to earn a degree and according to one graduate the Lexington facility is already a more peaceful, safe place than it was before because of the influence of the thirty.  The graduates were commissioned as field ministers and will serve in correctional facilities across the state to provide mentorship, pastoral care and guidance to their fellow inmates.  They are still inmates and will continue to serve time, but they will be given an opportunity to make a difference in the life of other inmates. 

     This program started back in 2020 when Oklahoma Southern Baptists, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Department of Corrections (ODOC), launched the OBU Prison Divinity Program (PDP) to provide incarcerated men with an accredited Christian liberal arts education.  Students’ complete coursework in theology, biblical studies, ethics, and pastoral ministry, culminating with a practical internship under the supervision of prison chaplains. 

     Applicants have to be high school graduates, have at least twelve years left on their sentence, be a security level 3 or 4, and not have any misconducts in the past six months.  Participants in PDP don’t receive special consideration for early release or parole.  Three observations:

     First, PDP could transform Oklahoma.  The state’s violent crime rate is 10% higher than the national average and the property crime rate is 19% higher.  Oklahoma ranks #15 in the U.S. for violent crime.  Oklahoma recidivism (return to incarceration) rate is around 1 in 4. 

     PDP is targeted toward violent offenders- only security levels 3 & 4 can apply.  In the ODOC system, security levels 3 &4 are considered maximum security.  The thirty field minister graduates will be working with men in prison whose hearts need transformation.  Instead of attempting behavior modification, they will be pointing their fellow inmates to an eternal transformation, not moral reformation. 

     Second, PDP is good public policy.  Kudos to Governor Stitt and ODOC Director Steven Harpe for their willingness to establish the program.  The U.S. Department of Justice partners with faith-based agencies for reentry into society.  Several states have established partnerships with faith-based organizations to address criminal behavior, most focusing on reentry programs, but PDP is groundbreaking.  It addresses the most violent in prison.  It reaches out to those deemed unreachable.   It communicates they still have worth and value- even while serving time.

     Traditional approaches to prison reform have not yielded significant, lasting positive change.  Recidivism hasn’t been reduced.  PDP seeks to change the person’s heart, not just their behavior.

     Third, PDP is privately funded.  No tax dollars are used.  There is no cost to the student.  Oklahoma Baptists, through the Cooperative Program and State Mission Offerings have paid the bill. 

    PDP is modeled after a faith-based ministry and rehabilitation program implemented at Louisiana State Penitentiary.  Once called ‘the bloodiest prison in America,” Warden Burl Cain established a branch of New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary that changed the environment in the prison.    

     Time will tell as to whether God will regenerate and transform hearts through the efforts of the first graduates of PDP.  What is certain is those thirty men have been changed by the grace of God.  

Well-intentioned mandated FEEL GOOD programs are bankrupting America!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

FEEL GOOD PROGRAMS!

by Steve Fair

     On Wednesday, Oklahoma Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-OK), and Pennsylvania Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan, (D-PA), introduced the More Paid Leave for More Americans Act.(MPLMAA) The legislation attempts to chart a path toward a national paid leave policy in the U.S. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the U.S. is one of just six countries in the world without a national paid parental leave policy.  If it passes both chambers and is signed by President Trump, it would establish a competitive grant program run by the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL).  It would create a modest ‘incentive’ for states to establish their own paid family leave program. 

     “We’ve had conversations with leadership, but more importantly, we’ve had conversations with committees and with the White House. We have really done our due diligence to make sure everybody knows the importance of this,” Rep. Bice said.  Bice and Houlahan are confident they can get the bill through Congress and signed into law.  Three observations:

     First, who pays the bill for MPLMAA?  Obviously, the federal grant portion will be paid by taxpayers.  The private portion will be paid by the end user consumer of the good or service provided by the business.  Business must ‘pass on’ any costs to stay in business.  They aren’t sponges- they can’t absorb increased costs.  When government mandates taxpayer empathy and charity to fellow citizens, it always requires money.  To fund sensitivity programs, government has to take from the needy and give to the greedy.    

     Second, MPLMAA has unintended consequences.  Here are two: first, small businesses will reduce the number of full-time workers so they do not have to provide the benefit.  Business has to adapt to survive and avoiding government overreach is a viable solution.  The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), enacted in 1990, provides an illustration of ignoring unintended consequences. The effect of ADA was the reverse of the intent- which was to protect the disabled in the workplace. Within five years of ADA's passage, employment for disabled men fell to 49 percent, compared with 60 percent before the law was enacted. Employers, faced with the cost of accommodation and the threat of litigation, chose the rational option: they cut back on hiring the disabled. When the cost of hiring a worker rises, demand for that worker falls. Second, MPLMAA will affect employee morale and productivity.  When employees go on paid leave and their position must be held open, those left at work have to take up the slack, usually with no extra compensation.  When multiple employees simultaneously take leave or take unannounced vacations, it disrupts a business operation.   

     Third, MPLMAA is socialism.  It takes away individual incentive and gives government more authority in a family’s life.  Instead of mandating paid family leave, the feds should look for ways to reduce regulations on employers so they can experiment with alternative work arrangements.  Congress should change the tax code to reflect the social importance of family.  Implementing feel-good schemes, like MPLMAA, which are meant to protect the vulnerable is not conservative policy.  Well-intentioned, misguided government mandated safety nets are bankrupting America. 

TAXPAYERS PAYING FOR FREE LUNCH!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

FREE LUNCH

by Steve Fair

     Back in 2020, Oklahoma voters narrowly approved Medicaid expansion.  The expansion provided health care to around 200,000 previously uninsured low-income adults aged 19-64 whose income was less than $17,000 a year individually or up to $29,000 for a family of three. Back then, the federal government was paying 90% of the cost, while the state paid 10%.  Supporters of the expansion said Oklahomans would be fools to turn down ‘free’ money.  But as is often the case, the ‘free’ money the federal government was supplying to expand Medicaid is being cut.  That cut will put a great deal of pressure on Oklahoma state government.  Three observations:

     First Medicaid expansion was a short-term solution to a long-term problem.  More than 900,000 Oklahomans- 1 in 4- depend on Medicaid.  Oklahoma is among one of the unhealthiest states in the U.S.  It is also one of the poorest. Back in 2020, rural health care providers (hospitals) needed the Medicaid expansion money to help their bleeding bottom line.  The providers and recipients were willing to take the bait offered by the feds for ‘free’ money, even if they recognized it was temporary.    

     According to the Legislative Office of Fiscal Accountability (LOFT), if the feds stop funding Medicaid expansion, it will cost state taxpayers over $200 million annually starting next fiscal year.  That $200 million has to come from somewhere, so basic services (public safety, etc.) will likely be impacted. 

     Second, government should not be in the health care business.  Government’s function, according to Article 1, section 8 is to provide for the common defense and general welfare of the country.  Liberals interpret “general welfare” as the founders endorsing socialized, taxpayer funded health care.   While it is true, "general welfare" has been interpreted to include health care programs, like Medicare and Medicaid, the Supreme Court has never interpreted it as the U.S. Constitution explicitly guaranteeing right to health care.  Like pretty much everything else it touches, government involvement in health care has led to degradation and decay, not discovery and development.

     Third, free money doesn’t exist.  Somebody is always paying the bill.    Like everything else, taxpayers pay the cost of Medicaid expansion.  Government has no ‘free’ money to give.  The only money government has is what is collected from hard working citizens and then returned less a large handling fee. 

     Years ago, bars provided a ‘free’ lunch to patrons who purchased at least one drink.  The ‘free’ food was unusually high in salt, so the customers would buy more beer.  In his book, “There’s no such thing as a Free Lunch,” economist Milton Friedman points out the patrons were not really getting a free lunch, but were being duped by the bar.  The purchasers all eventually paid for their ‘free’ snack. 

     Back in 2020, Oklahoma voters-prompted by elected officials and health care providers- prioritized immediate gains over long-term consequences.  Just slightly over 50% of voters approved the expansion of Medicaid, but now 100% of Oklahoma taxpayers will pay for that non-existent free lunch.

GOP NEEDS TO DEVELOP AND NOT DIVIDE !

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

PURPLE OKLAHOMA?

by Steve Fair

     Thirty years ago (1995), there were 1,823,748 voters registered in Oklahoma.  62% were registered Democrat, 33% were Republican, and 5% were Independent. As of January 2025, the numbers are much different- there are 2,470,437 registered voters in the Sooner state:  52.6% are registered Republican, 26.6% Democrat, 20% Independent, and 1% Libertarian.

     Oklahoma voted Democrat in all but two presidential elections through 1948, but has not gone Democrat since, except in the landslide win for Lyndon Johnson in 1964.   In 2024, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 66% to 32%, the sixth consecutive election the Republican nominee has won by over 30%.  Every county in Oklahoma voted for Donald Trump the last three elections.  All members of the Oklahoma federal delegation (2 Senators/5 Representatives) are Republican.  All statewide elected officials are Republican.  Republicans dominate county offices.  How did the Republicans flip voter registration in Oklahoma?  First, Oklahoma is a conservative state.  As the national Democrat Party became more liberal on social issues, conservative Democrats changed their Party affiliation and joined the Republicans. Over 70% of Oklahomans identify as Protestant, and most of those voters are socially conservative. They support the Republican Party's platform on abortion, same-sex marriage, and gun control.  Second, the oil and gas industry is a major player in the state.  The GOP tends to be more supportive of the energy sector than the Ds.  The Democrat’s war of fossil fuel didn’t set well with the thousands who make their living in that industry.  Third, Oklahoma is a rural state.  Almost two thirds of the state’s population is in rural areas.  Rural voters tend to be more conservative and traditional in their values.   But the GOP shouldn’t take their dominance for granted.  Three observations:

     First, Oklahoma is changing.  The state is gaining population, after years of little growth.  Oklahoma's population grew about 1% last year.  The OKC and Tulsa urban areas show the highest levels of net migration.  Rural Oklahoma population  remains flat and some rural counties have experienced population declines.  Many of the new Okies are from western states and they bring with them their politics and values (not as conservative).  That trend has been reflected in voting in the urban areas in recent elections.  GOP margins have declined and are thinner than in years past in the larger population areas.

     Second, Oklahoma Republicans have underperformed.  From elected Rs not

delivering on campaign promises to GOP Party leaders constant infighting, Republican creditability with the average Oklahoma voter has been shattered.  That’s why 1 in 5 Oklahoma voters are registered Independent, even though the GOP doesn’t let them vote in their primary. A cynical, skeptical, and suspicious public view GOP elected officials and Party leaders as grandstanders and self-promoters.  They detect little to no difference between the Ds and the Rs.  Past strategies to educate voters has been abandoned by the GOP for boasting, bragging and self-glory.  Until the Republican Party resumes making the main thing the main thing, expect the average voter to be lukewarm to the GOP. 

     Third, Oklahoma GOP politics has become nasty.  Name-calling, backbiting, talebearing, gossiping is unrestrained.  Professing Christians proudly proclaim their spiritual superiority and ‘thank God they are not as other men are, even this poor fellow Republican.’  Loving thy neighbor has been cut from Bibles with a penknife, in the name of standing for righteousness.  There is no tolerance for an opposing view.  Instead of civic debate, there is required harmony.  Failure to agree (heresy) results in being burned at the stake.  If the nastiness continues, the Oklahoma GOP will whittle the base down to where they can handle it. 

     Oklahoma is trending purple.  The urban areas will continue to grow at a faster rate than the rural areas, resulting in a more progressive/liberal state.  The GOP better get their act together and start developing instead of dividing before the Ds take over Oklahoma politics.

SQ#836 would change Oklahoma- and not for the better!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

DIVIDES & DILUTES!

by Steve Fair

     For nearly a century, the Democratic Party ruled Oklahoma.  When Republicans took control of the state House in 2004, it was the first time in over 75 years the GOP had a majority in the legislature.  Oklahoma was a one-party state and corruption ruled.  From Supreme Court bribery scandals to payoffs to county commissioners, Sooner tax dollars lined the pockets of crooks. Dishonesty and duplicity have been reduced since the GOP took over state government and while Oklahoma government isn’t perfect, it’s better than it was when the Ds were in control.

     A group called Oklahoma United is planning to run an initiative petition drive to get State Question #836 on the ballot.  They want the Sooner state to move to a top-two primary, where all candidates are listed on the same ballot, regardless of Party affiliation.  The top two would go the general election.  It is possible the top two would be from the same Party.  They have to get 173,000 signatures to get SQ#836 on the ballot.  Three observations:  

     First, it’s about winning elections.  Democrats face an uphill battle in elections.   Republicans now dominate Oklahoma government.  The GOP has super majorities in both chambers.  All statewide offices are held by Republicans.  County officials are overwhelmingly Republican.  Instead of educating the public on the virtues of being a Democrat, the Democratic Party’s response is to get their candidates to register R and run as a Republican.  For voters in Oklahoma, winnowing out the chaff (Republicans in name only) from the wheat (true Republicans) has become difficult.  Party affiliation used to mean something, but now it’s just a brand to win an election.

     Second, a political Party should choose their own nominee.  It shouldn’t be necessary to state the obvious, but Republicans should choose the Republican nominee- Democrats the Democrat- Libertarian the Libertarian. The Baptist don’t let the Methodist vote on who their pastor is going to be.  The Rotarians don’t let the Ambucs vote in their officer election.  Their processes are closed- as they should be.  A closed process doesn’t exclude- it simply prevents outsiders from ‘raiding’ a Party primary and nominating a weaker candidate. 

     Third, Party affiliation is a person’s first vote.  Party affiliation should be a matter of conviction, not convenience.  People often align with a Party so they can vote in primary elections or based on family tradition or geographies. While no political party is perfect or has all the answers, there is a distinct difference between the two major parties and honest citizens should align with the Party that reflects their convictions.  If someone wants to vote in the GOP primary, register Republican.  This isn’t brain surgery. 

     The Oklahoma Republican Party filed a lawsuit last week in an attempt to block SQ#836 from reaching the ballot.  The GOP says it petition violates the U.S. Constitution’s first Amendment associational right’s clause.  It also states SQ#836 is a radical change to how current elections are conducted in the Sooner state and that is not disclosed in the petition.   Whether the state GOP will win in court remains to be seen.

     Oklahomans can do three things to stop SQ#836: (1) Don’t sign the petition. No matter how pretty the young lady is with the clipboard, resist signing.  If the group fails to get the required signatures, SQ#836 will not be on the ballot.  (2) Recognize SQ#836 is not about fairness- it’s about control.  There is nothing ‘fair’ about open primaries.  Open primaries are not more moral/ethical/righteous than a closed primary.  Open primaries actually promote gamesmanship, deception, subterfuge, chicanery and treachery.  (3) Recognize Party affiliation is important.  It’s not about exclusivity- it’s about values.

     Educate your family and friends.  Get the word out- liberals are trying to change Oklahoma- and not for the better.  SQ#836 doesn’t ‘unite’ Oklahoma- it divides and dilutes.