Advice from down-under
General Petraeus' long-held emphasis on combining military and academic disciplines has led to a large number of Ph.D.'s in the Defense Department and in war zones. These academic types have become collectively known as the "Petraeus' guys", and are leading current war efforts. Dr. David Kilcullen, senior counter-insurgency advisor to Petraeus, is a key member of this group, and posts frequent on-line reports and comments for rapid communication. Comments are his own, and not U.S. policy statements. David Kilcullen, born in Australia in 1967, son of two left-leaning academics, graduated from Duntroon, the Australian West Point, where he had studied counter-insurgency warfare. In 2001 he received a Ph.D., majoring in political anthropology, from the University of New South Wales. As an Australian infantry officer he served in East Timor, Bougainville and the Middle East. He left active duty as a Lieutenant Colonel in 2005 to be loaned to the U. S. State Dept. as Chief Strategist in the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, and worked in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Horn of Africa and South-East Asia. He served as advisor to Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State. He is regarded as highly independent, non-political and outspoken, a trait that has given him significant credibility with leaders on both sides of American politics. His earlier comments include: "After 9/11, when a lot of people were saying 'The problem is Islam.' I was thinking, It's something deeper than that. It's about human social networks and the way that they operate…There are elements of human psychology and social makeup that drive what's happening. The Islamic bit is secondary. This is human behavior in an Islamic setting. This is not 'Islamic behavior.'…People don't get pushed into rebellion by their ideology. They get pulled in by their social networks."
His latest blog on the situation in Iraq is dated August 29 and titled "Anatomy of a Tribal Revolt." It begins with the statement: "Some aspects of the war in Iraq are hard to fit into 'classical' models of insurgency. One of these is the growing tribal uprising against al Qa'ida, which could transform the war in ways not factored into neat 'benchmarks' developed many months ago and thousands of miles away…the uprising began last year, far out in western Anbar province, but is now affecting about 40% of the country, and is filtering into Shi'a communities in the South…In Anbar the movement has acquired the name 'the awakening'…Other provinces are experiencing similar patterns, locals have formed neighborhood watches, policing their own community and cooperating with local Army units. "Of course, this is motivated primarily by self-interest. Tribal leaders realize the extremists were leading them on a path to destruction, and have seized the opportunity to dump the terrorists and come in from the cold. They are also looking forward to the day when coalition forces are no longer in their districts, and want to ensure that they, not al Qa'ida, are in charge when we leave. And many of the tribal leaders have realized for themselves what our Army, Marines and Special Forces commanders have been telling them: 'If you don't like having us around…the solution is staring you in the face: just get rid of the extremists, reduce the violence and cooperate with the government to stabilize your area, and we're out of here'…The implications of the tribal revolt have been somewhat overlooked by the news media and in the public debate in Coalition capitals. In fact, the uprising represents very significant political progress toward reconciliation at the grass-roots level, and …is arguably the most significant change in the Iraqi operating environment for several years…this is Iraqi-led, bottom-up, based on civil society rather than national politics. And oddly enough, it seems to be working so far." Another under-reported event was the three-day meeting in Cairo in late August of the most senior Iraqi Sunni and Shia religious leaders. Anglican priest Andrew White has served in Baghdad for over nine years, and began the process of bringing religious leaders together - gradually in small groups leading to a conference this past June of over 70 leaders to agree to the meeting of the six in Cairo, where they agreed to "end terrorist violence, and to disband militia activity in order to build a civilized country within the framework of law." Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani has reached out to the most senior Sunni Imams and asked that they meet with him as soon as possible in Najif, Iraq, to focus on peacemaking. A joint Sunni-Shia fatwa to the Iraqi people is expected. An invitation from the most senior Shia cleric for a meeting with the most senior Sunni cleic is unprecedented in Iraq's history. One factor motivating such an invitation was the goal of getting the U.S. out of Iraq - obviously a goal shared by Americans. Just as important, however, is their alarm over growing Iranian influence over southern Iraq and the common sentiment among them that they do not want to be dominated by Iran. Tribal leaders and religious leaders may succeed in bringing relative peace to an Iraq free of al Qa'ida, and absent coalition forces. Petraeus and the professors may win.
George Porter is a retired insurance company executive and a Duncan Banner columnist. He may be contacted at geormrty@wmconnect.com
No comments:
Post a Comment