AMERICANS DON'T APPRECIATE WHAT THEY HAVE!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

BIG YELLOW TAXI!

by Steve Fair

     Consumers in the United States spend an average of 8.6 percent of their disposable personal income on food.  That is divided between food at home (5.0 percent) and food away from home (3.6 percent).  Americans spend a smaller share of their household budget on food than any country in the world.  In Pakistan, the average person spends 41.4 percent of their money to buy food, Nigeria 56.6 percent.  Even the countries that border the US spend more- Canadians spend 9.6 percent, Mexicans 23.3 percent.  The reason Americans spend less of their income on food is due to the competence of the U.S. food supply chain. 

     Efficient U.S. producers, processors and retailers are unequaled in the world from taking food from the field to the plate.  That efficiency has resulted in reduced shelf prices for American consumers vs. the rest of the world.  2022 begins with carry over logistic challenges, labor shortages, inflation and ever-changing weather from 2021.  The pipeline in the food industry supply chain continues to trickle, not flow.    Three observations:

     First, Americans are spoiled.  They are not used to seeing empty shelves at their grocery store or having to wait for products to get back in stock.  In other parts of the world, out of stocks are commonplace.  The American food industry has been so reliable and efficient for so long that consumers have taken it for granted. 

     One of the primary reasons for the current empty shelf situation is wholesalers/retailers keep their inventory of warehouse stock to bare minimum levels.  This allowed them to keep their monetary investment lower.  Food processors mirrored that philosophy and embraced a ‘just in time/produce to order’ strategy.  They also maintained little or no floor stock.  That worked for years until there was a major disruption in the logistics process.  When millions of people stayed home and isolated due to the pandemic, they hoarded and consumed more food.  That depleted what was in the supply pipeline and it has never recovered.  Moving forward, the food industry must embrace a different inventory model.   

     Second, food prices will go up in 2022.  Weather plays a significant factor in commodity prices of most crops(oil seed, grains, fruits, vegetables).  Most of the crop prices are up.  Cost to produce for food manufacturers is significantly higher (ingredient costs, labor).   Wholesalers and retailer’s freight and labor costs have increased. When those in the supply chain have increases, they have to pass them through and consumers ultimately pay the higher price at the shelf. 

     Third, government can’t fix it.  President Biden and Congress are debating how to fix logistics and the broken supply chain, but while energetic, it is worthless.  Throwing money at it will not work.  The administration claims the inflation Americans are experiencing is ‘transitory’(not permanent.), but there is no sign it is going away.  Most economists believe inflation is here for at least a year.

      Government interference in the food business is part of the issue.  The best hope Americans have to get back to normal is food processors, farmers, and the trucking industry to find solutions to fix the supply chain.  Farmers have a choice what they plant and their choice impacts what American consumers pay for products.  The best thing the government can do is roll back mandates and get out of the way.

     In 1970, Joni Mitchell, a Canadian folk singer, wrote and recorded, “Big Yellow Taxi.”  The chorus asks, “Don’t it always seem to go that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone?”  Americans are asking that question every time they go to their local grocery store in 2022. 

    

NO SOVEREIGN BUT GOD- NO KING BUT JESUS!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

2022 FORECAST!

by Steve Fair

     In 1555, Michel de Nostredame aka Nostradamus published a book titled, “Les Propheties,” a collection of 942 quartrains (4-line poems) that predicted future events.  The Frenchman was an astrologer, physical and reputed seer.  Nostradamus has been credited with predicting the rise of Hitler, the assassination of JFK, both world wars, the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the Great Fire of London.  Skeptics suggest no Nostradamus quatrain has actually predicted a specific event before it occurred, other than in vague general terms that could apply to any number of other events but that doesn’t deter his believers.   For 2022, Nostradamus predicts the invasion of France from the east (again), inflation and starvation, global warming, the rise of artificial intelligence.  Three predictions for 2022:

     First, inflation will get worse before it gets better.  Wages will rise, but costs of food, housing, cars, and everything else will go up even more in the coming year.  The shipping port, and supply chain disruption will continue.  Government interference, regulations, mandates, and overspending will not help the situation.  A shortage of workers will continue.   

     Second, Americans will become more disillusioned with their government.  In a recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, one third of Americans said violence against the government is sometimes justified.  That number is up significantly over previous years.  40% of Republicans, 41% of Independents, and 26% of Democrats endorsed violence in certain situations.  Dissatisfaction with politics is not just restricted to the U.S.  In a Cambridge University poll ran in October 2020, over 50% of the world’s millennials are dissatisfied with democracy.    

     The apathy of baby boomers, as a whole, toward politics and public policy has resulted in the loss of economic opportunity, liberty, and personal freedom for themselves and their children.  Many boomers recently awoke from their decades long slumber to curse the darkness and to criticize those who lit a candle.  If they had been vigilant and faithful in their early years, the country wouldn’t be in the shape it is now.

     Third, Republicans will gain control of Congress in the 2022 mid-term elections.  According to 580.com, a composite of five polls show the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans over Democrats 42.8% to 42% in the 2022 November midterms.  The tendency of the president’s Party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the regularities in American politics.  Since WWII, the president’s Party has lost U.S. House seats in 17 of the 19 midterm elections.  The average loss in the Senate is between three and four seats.  34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are up for re-election- 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans.  There is also a special election in California to fill the unexpired term of Vice President Harris.   Gaining seats in the Senate in 2022 for Republicans will be difficult, due to Republican retirements.  Most incumbent Democrats are seeking reelection, but Americans are not happy with the direction President Biden has taken the country.  That doesn’t bode well for the Democrats, even if they are incumbents.

     These three predictions for 2022 may or may not come to pass.  They are just an educated guess based on information known.  Gratefully, Christian believers don’t have to worry about what is going to happen politically or economically in 2022.  God has got the whole world in His hands.  He isn’t dependent on a political Party, political activists, elected leaders or midterm elections to accomplish anything.  He sovereignly works all things according to His will.  He is limitless in power and knowledge.  His prophecies aren’t like Nostradamus’ vague, hazy, murky prognostications.  They are absolute and will happen. 

     President John Adams said, “We recognize no sovereign but God and no King but Jesus.”  America would do well to get back to that committment.

IT AIN'T JUST CORN FLAKES AFFECTED BY CORN PRICES!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

TEN BITS IN 2022!

by Steve Fair

     2021 ends this week.  It has been quite a year.  425,000 American deaths were attributed to COVID-19, up 40,000 over 2020.   The retail gasoline price in America is over $1.00 more per gallon than it was on January 1, 2021.  Gas is higher than it has been since 2014.  Food prices have risen more this year than they did in the past decade.  Beef, pork, and chicken prices are respectively 26.2%, 19.2%, and 14.8% higher this year than last.  The Food Price Index, which tracks global prices of agriculture commodities used in making food, rose 30% in the past year.  The annual inflation rate in the U.S. rose +6.3% in 2021, the highest in 30 years. 

     For 35 years, retail chain Dollar Tree sold toys, home furnishings, kitchenware, holiday decorations, party supplies, books, food, and lots of other items for $1.  But starting later this week, Dollar Tree will move to the $1.25 price point.  Because of inflation, increases in cost of goods, labor, and freight, they can’t remain profitable selling stuff for a buck.  So it’s now TEN bits!  Many Americans don’t understand inflation, but Dollar Tree’s move will very graphically illustrate to them how economics work. 

     In three weeks, President Biden will mark his first year in office.  Did the POTUS’s policies create the economic turmoil? Was is the pandemic or something else?  Two observations:

     First, Biden’s attack on the oil/gas industry did not immediately impact the price of gas.  Clearly his administration’s energy policy is anti-fossil fuel, but his shut down of the Keystone pipeline didn’t result in instant price increases.  His suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for federal land did impact domestic production, which certainly didn’t help, but Biden deserves neither credit or blame for the current price at the pump.  That is a supply/demand issue.  Biden’s energy policies, if kept in place, will seriously damage the energy sector long after he has left office.

     Second, Biden’s push for renewable energy and biofuel has impacted the price of food.   Instead of putting corn related products into their belly, Americans are putting it in their gas tanks.  Beef, chicken, and pork producers are paying more for feed, which impacts their prices.  Food processors are paying more for corn related ingredients.  And it’s not just corn flakes that are impacted.  Products like shampoo, perfume, soda pop, yogurt, chewing gum, and even make-up all use ingredients related to corn.  The price of corn is at an historical high because of demand due to the biofuel mandate.  Biden needs to dial the mandate back. 

      When calculating rates of inflation, economists often remove food because food prices tend to be more volatile than prices of many other goods in the economy. Food is a necessity, and changes in the price of food immediately and directly affect households.  Americans in the lowest 20% of household income spend 11% of their budget on food.  The highest 20% household income earners spend 7% on food.  When food prices go up as they have in 2021, it has a disproportionately negative impact on the poorest among us.   The Biden administration claim the current price increases are transitory, but the pressure on food producers and processors is real and could result in many going out of business if they aren’t able to pass through the increases.  That would be quite a transition!

     2021 is in the books.  Good riddance.  The year has been a challenge.  Hopefully 2022 will be a better year economically and physically for Americans. Happy New Year!    

 

Fauci- and others- have put the politics in COVID! Time for him to GO!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

THEORY OF ERROR!

by Steve Fair

     Dr. Anthony Fauci is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.  He also serves as the Chief Medical Advisor to the President.  Facui, 80, has served in the public health sector for more than fifty years and been an advisor to every U.S. president since Ronald Reagan.  When former President Trump created the White House COVID Task Force, Fauci served on the committee and became a spokesperson for the POTUS.   Last week, Fauci said on Face the Nation those who criticize him are criticizing science, because he ‘represents science.’   Critics attacked the statement.  “The man thinks he is some kind of deity.  His argument is essentially…I am the science!  I am the truth,” Fox News Laura Ingraham said.  U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn, (R-TN), accused Fauci of ‘cherry picking’ facts on the science.  On the same program, Fauci said that Republicans had used him as scapegoat on COVID.  Three observations:

     First, Dr. Fauci has been consistently inconsistent on COVID.  In January 2020, he said COVID-19 did not present a ‘major threat’ to the American public.  By March 2020, he had changed his mind and predicted the fatality rate from COVID-19 would be close to 1%- ten time higher than conventional flu.  He initially told the public masks were ineffective and urged the public to not use them.  He later changed his mind and said they should be mandated.   Fauci suggested for months COVID-19 could not have leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China, but has since said that theory can’t be dismissed. 

     Perhaps Fauci is an advocate of Paul Feyerabend’s ‘theory of error,’ which states science should not look for infallible rules that lead to the approximation of the truth.  Feyerabend’s theory criticized the idea science could be governed or regulated by a set of fixed rules and encouraged scientists to recognize error and learn to live with it.   Feyerabend’s theory requires honesty and humility from a scientist.  Not likely Fauci is a proponent.        

     Second, Fauci’s criticism of his critics undermines his creditability.  When he states his critics are being political, but he attacks them on issues unrelated to COVID, he is being political.   The fact is Fauci is a government bureaucrat, who is very political, because he is in the political arena.  The general public doesn’t know what to believe.  Wear masks- don’t wear masks?  Get vaccinated or don’t get vaccinated?  Listen to your medical professional and the CDC or ignore them?  Fauci likes to paint himself as taking the high road, but he rarely does.  Often his critics are no better- grandstanding by using COVID to self-promote.  In the confusing time of COVID-19, Americans need the truth.  They don’t need a spin doctor whose creditability is questionable at best and politicians whose goal is to amour propre.

     Third, disagreeing with Fauci doesn’t mean disagreeing with science.  Fauci’s statement that ‘he represents science’ is arrogant, haughty and pompous.  Science is defined as the intellectual and practical activity around the systematic study of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment.  Observation and experiment!  Scientists are human and their opinion is to be based on the facts as they know them.  But at best, it is still an educated guess.  Many highly educated, trained scientists disagree with Anthony Fauci’s conclusions on COVID.  Their observation and experience have them reaching a different interpretation.       

     Americans need honesty and straight talk on COVID-19.  Dr. Anthony Fauci is not the right person to do that.  He has proven he is too political.  Get someone who believes in the theory of error

AMERICA NEEDS TO REVERSE CHANGE BACK TO CORE VALUES!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

ADJUST THE SAILS!

by Steve Fair

     Change is inevitable.  Change is constant.  Only those who embrace change will survive.  Albert Einstein said, “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.”  President John F. Kennedy said, “Change is the law of life, and those who look only to the past and present are certain to miss the future.”  The gospel of ‘change’ is drilled into young impressable minds from an early age.  Hundreds of books are written each year enumerating recipes for making oneself a ‘change agent.’  Three thoughts on change:

     First, change is not always positive.  America has changed- a bunch.  A nation built on the fundamental tenet of liberty and justice for all now limits liberty and rejects justice.  Civility in the U.S. is dead.  Showing respect for differing opinions is a sign of weakness in modern day America.  Humility is for the feeble and puny.  Compassion is for the frail and decrepit.  Character traits that were once admired in the U.S. are now despised.  Attributes that in the past were thought of as unsavory are palatable. 

     Second, change for the sake of change is not positive.  Change for the wrong reason results in confusion, disorganization and skepticism.  An excellent example is the Affordable Care Act.  America’s health care system changed radically under President Obama.  Despite the U.S. now spending far more per capita on healthcare than other high-income nations, it still scores poorly on life expectancy, suicide and maternal mortality.  The change in health care has resulted in poorer care at a higher cost.  There are hundreds of examples of legislation(laws) at the federal and state level either unnecessary or that resulted in ‘unintended consequences.’ That is not positive change.   

     Third, there are some things that don’t change.  God doesn’t change.  He is immutable, unchangeable, and unshakable.  God doesn’t change in His essence, attributes, plans, and promises, because He is perfect. God’s Word doesn’t change.  It is eternal, infinite, and everlasting.  It is solid, concrete and grounded.  Mankind should take great comfort that in a world of change, the Creator of that world is unchangeable.

     People can’t be immutable or unchangeable.  Mankind should constantly strive to improve, but what should not change?  What is the difference between timeless principles and ephemeral practices?  First, a core value is one that we hold even if it becomes a disadvantage to hold it.  Second, core values are based on more than just our opinion.  In the case of a Christian believer, those core values are based on the Bible- for American citizens, they are based on the U.S. Constitution.

     Russian writer Leo Tolstoy said, “Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”  Sausage king Jimmy Dean said it a little different: “I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.”

America needs to reverse the changes that have moved the country from it’s founding documents and principles.  In a self-governed system, that responsibility rests squarely on the shoulders of individual citizens.  It’s time to adjust the sails.    

 

GREATEST GENERATION BELIEVED IN A CAUSE GREATER THAN THEMSELVES!

 Weekly Opinion Editorial

GREAT TO RELIANT IN 80 YEARS!

by Steve Fair

 

     Tuesday December 7^th will mark the 80^th anniversary of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese.  The United States was a neutral country at the time.  The attack led to America’s formal entry into World War II the next day.  The attack started on a Sunday morning at 7:48am and involved 353 Japanese aircraft, launched from 6 aircraft carriers.  There were 8 U.S. Navy battleships in the harbor.  All were damaged- 4 were sunk, including the USS Oklahoma. A total of 188 U.S. aircraft were destroyed.  2,403 Americans were killed and 1,178 were wounded.  There were 15 Congressional Medals of Honor, 51 Navy Crosses, and 53 Silver Stars awarded to the American servicemen who distinguished themselves in combat at Pearl Harbor.  The attack united America.  The call to ‘Remember Pearl Harbor,’ had men rushing to sign up to fight in the war.

     The day after the attack, President Franklin Roosevelt delivered his famous ‘Day of Infamy’ speech to a Joint Session of Congress.  He called for a formal declaration of war on Japan.  The vote in the Senate was 82-0, the House 388-1.  The lone dissenter was Rep. Jeannette Rankin, a women’s rights suffragist advocate and lifelong pacifist from Montana.  Rankin was the first woman to hold federal office in the United States, elected to the U.S. House in 1916.  Three observations:

     First, the attack backfired on the Japanese.  America and their leadership had remained neutral before the Pearl Harbor attack.  Britain was losing the war in Europe and while it was a great ally, America was staying out of it.  Sir Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister, said his first thought when America declared they were entering the fray was, “We have won the war.”   Japan attacked because they feared the US was going to intervene in their attacks in Asia, but history has shown that was not being considered.  Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto said, "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." The average Japanese citizen was shocked to find out about the attack and were dismayed they were at war with the United States.  Japan won the battle, but lost the war because they awoke that sleeping giant.

     Second, those who fought WWII were a special bred.  Tom Brokaw wrote they were the ‘greatest generation.’ They were born between 1901-1927.  They had survived the economic depression of the 1930s where unemployment reached 30%.  They believed in personal responsibility, had a strong work ethic, were frugal, committed, displayed integrity and were self-sacrificing and self-reliant. They fought in WWII, not for fame or recognition, but because it was ‘the right thing to do.’  They put their country before themselves.

     Third, if Pearl Harbor were attacked today, would Americans respond the way of their great grandparents?  It’s highly doubtful.  Many Americans, across all political spectrums, believe the country is so flawed, it isn’t worth fighting for.  Many of our best and brightest apologize for America’s past, don’t appreciate the sacrifice of their forefathers, and don’t understand our system of government. 

     The government of Afghanistan fell overnight because their citizens didn’t believe their country was worth fighting for.  Could that happen in America?  Americans in the 21^st century are narcissistic, self-centered, spoiled individualists.  They want government to provide personal and financial security and exercise no personal responsibility.  They want free education, free rent and food, and free cell phones.  No way would they dare risk their life to fight a war they didn’t believe in. 

     In two generations (80 years), America has went from the greatest generation to the reliant generation.  Thank God, the ‘greatest generation’ believed in a cause greater than themselves or the official language of America would be German or Japanese.

 

Roe v. Wade could go down this week!

Weekly Opinion Editorial 

TIME TO RIGHT A WRONG!

by Steve Fair

       On Wednesday, the United State Supreme Court(SCOTUS) will take up a Mississippi abortion case.  This could be the most critical decision on abortion in decades.  Lawyers for both sides are telling the SCOTUS there is no middle ground.  They can either affirm the constitutional right to an abortion or wipe Roe v. Wade out altogether.  With the addition of three SCOTUS justices to the court by former President Donald Trump during his four-year term, conservative thinkers have a 6-3 majority on the court.  Abortion advocates are worried.

     The case is Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization(JWHO).  It challenges a 2018 Mississippi law that bans most abortions after 15 weeks.  The law is in conflict with Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that declared a woman has a constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy in the first six months of a pregnancy.  Oklahoma, Mississippi and ten other states have abortion trigger laws that would take effect immediately if Roe v. Wade is overturned.  “A decision upholding this ban is tantamount to overruling Roe,” said Julie Rikelman, the lawyer for JWHO.  “There are no half measures here.” Sherif Girgis, a Notre Dame law professor and former clerk for Justice Alito says.   According to the liberal Guttmacher Institute a ruling affirming the Mississippi law would ban or severely restrict abortion in 26 U.S. states.   Three observations:

     First, the U.S. Constitution does not guarantee the right to an abortion.  Justice Clarence Thomas has written the founding document is silent on the subject of abortion and said the SCOTUS bends its own rules and procedures to protect Roe v. Wade and the 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey rulings.  Few rulings by the SCOTUS have cried out as loudly for reversal, or both moral and legal grounds, as Roe v. Wade.  The majority opinion in Roe is fraught with conspicuous errors of law, fact and reasoning.  Justice Thomas said in 2019: “In my view, if the SCOTUS encounters a decision that is demonstrably erroneous- i.e., one that is not a permissible interpretation of the text-the SCOTUS should correct the error, regardless of whether other factors support overruling the precedent.”  

     Even supporters of Roe admit the problem with the ruling is it has little connection to the Constitutional right(privacy) it purportedly interpreted.  Most legal experts say it is a stretch to include abortion as a constitutionally protected right based on privacy and it has no foundation in constitutional text, history or precedent.

     Second, the Constitution does guarantee the right to life.  It’s in the preamble.  If the  SCOTUS should rule unborn children are persons under the Constitution’s 14^th Amendment, then Roe is toast.  The Constitution explicitly guarantees the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  A positive ruling would extend those rights to the unborn.

     Third, an estimated 62 million children in the U.S. have been aborted since 1973.  The economic impact of abortion during that period is in the billions- both in lost workers and productivity, and in taxes not paid to government.  Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards argues that there is no specific moment when life begins and says her children’s life began when they were born.  Dr. Jerome Lejeune, the father of modern genetics, disagrees.  He says, “To accept the fact that after fertilization has taken place, a new human has come into being is no longer a matter of taste or opinion—it is plain experimental evidence.  Each individual has a very neat beginning, at conception.”

     The SCOTUS has the opportunity this week to right a 48-year-old wrong. Christians should be in prayer they will rule to uphold the Mississippi law.  It could save millions of unborn children’s lives.